821
FXUS62 KMFL 270817
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
317 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
- A FOG/SMOKE MIX MAY CREATE EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF I-75, TAMIAMI TRAIL, AND SR-29
THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 9AM.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH HIGHER ODDS
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY GIVEN ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES, CONTINUED MOISTURE RESURGENCE VIA
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND A NOCTURNAL INVERSION HAVE RESULTED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MOST OF INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM THE NATIONAL & REGAL FIRES IN
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA MAY ACT TO CREATE EXCEPTIONALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THESE AREAS, RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES NEARING ZERO AT
TIMES AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO
EXERCISE EXTRA CAUTION IF TRAVELING ALONG INLAND ROUTES THROUGH
9AM THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR-29 IN
COLLIER/HENDRY COUNTIES. 08Z MESOANALYSIS IN TANDEM WITH RECENT
AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DEPICT
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED FOG DEVELOPMENT (NOCTURNAL
INVERSION AND SURFACE SATURATION) AND A CONTINUED EXPANSION OF
FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION NOW THROUGH DAYBREAK. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH 9AM THIS MORNING FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT SMOKE COMBINING WITH FOG COULD RESULT IN EVEN
LOWER VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO ZERO AT TIMES. WITH THE GRADUAL
ENHANCEMENT OF SURFACE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE, THE INVERSION LAYER
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT HIGHER INTO THE VERTICAL COLUMN
RESULTING IN DENSE FOG BECOMING LOW CEILING STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY
ERODING AS DIURNAL MIXING OCCURS.
THE PREVALENT PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL CONTINUE AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET-STREAM SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE EASTWARD
WILL RESULT IN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY STALLING
ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. WHILE SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND THE ENVELOPE OF DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE CONTINUED INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL USHER IN THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SHOWER (AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM) ACTIVITY NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. WHILE IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES CAN DEVELOP, MODELED
DCAPE VALUES OF 900-1100 J/KG ON RECENT HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD PROVE TO BE GUSTY. LIGHT
WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARM-UP AFTER FOG
ERODES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM
NEAR 90 ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH A MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAK OVERHEAD AND SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB WINDS
COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE
(SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE) COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS, COLD 500MB TEMPERATURES, AND AN INVERTED V SOUNDING
WITH RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A QUICK SPIN-UP IN
THIS TYPE OF SETUP. WHILE EXACT DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IRONED OUT, THERE IS INDEED A WINDOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S ALONG THE COAST TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
ACROSS SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
AS CONCURRENT LOBES OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SLIDE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MOMENTUM AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THE FORECASTED ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THE VEERING OF 500MB
FLOW TO A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AS THE AXIS OF THE MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, AND THE
DEEPEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION,
RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND LOWER ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY AND
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT DECREASES. A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES FRONTOLYTIC IN THE VICINITY OF OUR
REGION ON MONDAY, THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, A QUIET
PERIOD ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IS USHERED INTO THE REGION AS A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND GRADUALLY
SLIDES EASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL USHER IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A RESULTANT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OCCURS ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
ROTATE INTO THE REGION AROUND THE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING SITUATED
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
1.3 TO 1.6 RANGE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WHILE A MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL ACT TO KEEP ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
VERTICALLY CAPPED. WHILE THE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WELL INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT FOR THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN IN CONTROL
WITH A CONSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
EAST COAST TO MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST, MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS MOST OF INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. SUB MVFR/LIFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KAPF THROUGH 13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY SE TO
SSE AROUND 10KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS, EXCEPT FOR A WESTERLY SHIFT AT
APF WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. ADDED IN VCSH AT NORTHERN EAST
COAST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
OUTSIDE OF LOCALLY ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOCALLY DENSE
FOG MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE GULF AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WATERS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITIES THAN
NORMAL. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT NEXT WEEK WILL ACT
TO ESTABLISH A BREEZY TO AT TIMES GUSTY EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN A
DURATION OF LIKELY ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUED REDUCTION IN THE RIP CURRENT THREAT AT EAST COAST
BEACHES, AS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST AT PALM
BEACH COUNTY BEACHES. WITH WINDS FORECAST TO ENHANCE OUT OF AN
EASTERLY ONSHORE DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN ELEVATED RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO RETURN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCATIONS
THAT EXPERIENCE A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL FIRE SMOKE AND DENSE FOG
COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP TO NEAR ZERO. THESE DANGEROUS
REDUCTIONS POSE A SERIOUS HAZARD TO MOTORISTS AND TRAVELERS
SHOULD AVOID THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL ENHANCE OUT OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AS DENSE FOG GRADUALLY WANES AND/OR LIFTS
INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH,
BUT INFREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
TODAY WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE, BUT STILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WEEKEND, A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH IN MOST
LOCATIONS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE ONGOING DROUGHT OR
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON,
WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING 0.5-0.75". THE PRIMARY
WINDOW FOR THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK AND KEEP A LOW
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. BUT MEANINGFUL RAINFALL, OR
EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 68 83 67 / 20 20 40 30
WEST KENDALL 85 63 86 62 / 10 10 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 84 67 85 66 / 20 30 50 30
HOMESTEAD 83 67 84 65 / 10 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 67 82 66 / 20 40 50 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 68 83 66 / 30 40 60 40
PEMBROKE PINES 85 67 86 66 / 20 30 50 40
WEST PALM BEACH 83 67 83 66 / 40 60 70 50
BOCA RATON 82 66 83 65 / 40 50 60 50
NAPLES 82 65 79 63 / 20 50 30 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
067-070-071-073.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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