978
FXUS62 KMFL 021139
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, QUICK MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED
EACH DAY. BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE (30-40%) FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MODEST MOISTURE REMAINS (PWATS 1.2-1.3 INCHES) WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
SURFACE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S FOR EAST COAST METRO
AREAS, HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION EASTERLY FLOW, A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND HIGHS COULD
APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WHICH MAY BRING PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
EXPECT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK
AND A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.
THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 69 80 70 / 20 20 20 20
WEST KENDALL 82 65 82 67 / 20 10 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 81 68 82 69 / 20 20 30 20
HOMESTEAD 80 69 81 70 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 68 79 70 / 20 20 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 69 79 70 / 30 30 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 82 68 83 70 / 20 20 30 20
WEST PALM BEACH 78 68 79 69 / 20 30 20 20
BOCA RATON 79 68 80 69 / 30 30 20 30
NAPLES 83 65 84 66 / 40 40 30 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...ATV
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