736
FXUS62 KMFL 031145
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
645 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, QUICK MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS WELL. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FORCING, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL HOWEVER A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED
EACH DAY. BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MODEST MOISTURE REMAINS (PWATS 1.2-1.3 INCHES) WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
SURFACE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S FOR EAST COAST METRO
AREAS, HOWEVER DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK-WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSISTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD TEMPOS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
EXPECT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
AND NIGHT OVER LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO A STRONG EASTERLY REGIME THROUGH MOST OF
THIS WEEK. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 17-20 KNOTS COULD BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 70 81 71 / 20 20 30 20
WEST KENDALL 82 67 83 68 / 20 20 30 20
OPA-LOCKA 82 69 83 70 / 20 20 30 20
HOMESTEAD 82 70 82 71 / 20 20 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 70 79 71 / 20 20 30 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 70 80 71 / 20 20 30 20
PEMBROKE PINES 82 70 83 71 / 20 20 30 20
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 80 70 / 20 20 20 20
BOCA RATON 80 69 81 70 / 20 20 30 30
NAPLES 85 67 86 68 / 10 10 60 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...ATV
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