594
FXUS62 KMFL 032047
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
347 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 345 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
MODEL ENSEMBLES AND HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DEPICT MODERATE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE, WHILE BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E CONUS. SOFLO REMAINS IN THE
SOUTHERN- MOST PORTION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WITH PREVAILING
ENE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
DATA FROM THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING, ALONG WITH MODEL ESTIMATES, SHOW
A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS SOFLO TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS IN THE 1.1-1.3" RANGE. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS EAST COAST
LOCATIONS. SINCE NBM CONTINUES TO RUN DRIER THAN CURRENT
CONDITIONS, POPS/WX GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
SHOWER COVERAGE DEPICTED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS, ALONG WITH RADAR
AND SATELLITE DATA.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIMITED WITH MINIMAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING AVAILABLE. HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED
EACH DAY. BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MODEST MOISTURE REMAINS (PWATS 1.2-1.3 INCHES) WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
SURFACE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S FOR EAST COAST METRO
AREAS, HOWEVER DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/-SHRA AFFECTING THE
ATLANTIC SITES UNTIL AROUND 00Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PERSISTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY EASTERLY IN THE 7-10KT OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
EXPECT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
AND NIGHT OVER LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO A STRONG EASTERLY REGIME THROUGH MOST OF
THIS WEEK. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 17-20 KNOTS COULD BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 81 72 82 / 30 20 30 30
WEST KENDALL 67 83 68 84 / 20 20 30 30
OPA-LOCKA 70 82 70 84 / 30 20 30 30
HOMESTEAD 71 82 72 83 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 79 71 81 / 30 20 20 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 80 71 81 / 30 20 20 30
PEMBROKE PINES 70 83 71 84 / 30 20 30 30
WEST PALM BEACH 69 80 70 82 / 30 10 20 20
BOCA RATON 69 80 70 82 / 30 20 20 30
NAPLES 67 85 67 85 / 10 30 20 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....GR
AVIATION...17
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