163
FXUS62 KMFL 042338
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
638 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
NBM SOLUTIONS FOR ONGOING POP/WX COVERAGE CONTINUES TO UNDER PERFORM
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOFLO. RADAR
AND SATELLITE DATA STILL DEPICTS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS STREAMING EAST-
TO-WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPING
AROUND THE LAKE REGION. MOST ENSEMBLE/BLEND SOLUTIONS ALSO INSIST IN
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN REAL TIME DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW. FROM THE
GLOBAL/BASELINE MODELS, GFS SOLUTION LOOKS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN TERMS OF POPS AND WEATHER COVERAGE, WITH THOSE GRIDS NOW
UPDATED AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MEANWHILE, ENSEMBLES AND HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS KEEP MODERATE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE, ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE E CONUS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A PREVAILING E
FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. MODEL AND 00Z MFL SOUNDING
DATA SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS SOFLO WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.1-1.4" RANGE. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS, FAVORING EAST
COAST LOCATIONS.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIMITED WITH MINIMAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING AVAILABLE. HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S, ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED
EACH DAY. BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE REMAINS (PWATS 1.2-1.4 INCHES)
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. SURFACE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S FOR EAST COAST METRO
AREAS, HOWEVER DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK-WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. PASSING SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT, FAVORING
THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS, WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER
CIGS AT TIMES. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH AROUND 15Z, THEN BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
EXPECT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
AND NIGHT OVER LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LEAD TO A STRONG EASTERLY REGIME THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK,
WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 82 73 81 / 40 20 20 30
WEST KENDALL 68 84 68 84 / 30 20 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 71 83 71 83 / 40 20 10 20
HOMESTEAD 72 82 72 83 / 40 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 80 72 81 / 40 20 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 81 72 81 / 40 20 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 71 84 72 84 / 40 20 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 71 81 71 81 / 30 20 10 20
BOCA RATON 71 81 71 81 / 40 20 20 20
NAPLES 68 85 68 85 / 10 40 20 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...17
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