770
FXUS62 KMFL 052335
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
635 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES CONTINUES.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
MOST OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, WITH MAINLY A WEST COAST BURST OF CONVECTION BY MID
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OF
LOW/MID LVL CU, WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALREADY OBSERVED AROUND THE
LAKE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE, BOTH KEY AND MFL
SOUNDING DATA SHOW PWATS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
VALUES AROUND 1.5".
FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATES, WILL BASICALLY KEEP THE INITIAL NBM
SOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
EXTEND THE LOW-END POPS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF SOFLO. BUT SHOWERS
IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF. POPS/WX GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY.
SOFLO REMAINS IN THE SOUTHERN-WEST PORTION OF A HIGH PRESSURE
CELL CENTERED AROUND THE WEST ATLANTIC, KEEPING PREVAILING ESE
WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN LIMITED WITH MINIMAL SYNOPTIC FORCING AVAILABLE. BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE
WESTER HALF OF SOFLO.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, AND MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS SW
FL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S/70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN THE
SAME WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN CONTROL
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE US. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT
A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY ARRIVING LATE NEXT WEEK BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD. QUICK MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
CERTAINLY NOT MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO,
AND MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SW FL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S/70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BUT BRIEF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR EVEN
A VCTS THROUGH AROUND 02Z. ESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY
PERIODS THROUGH AROUND 01-02Z TONIGHT, THEN REMAINING AROUND
10-12 KT OVERNIGHT. GUSTY PERIODS WILL RETURN AFTER 15Z IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
HAZARDOUS EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN CAUTIONARY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF
WATERS. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WILL BE 3-5 FT, AND 2 FT
OR LESS IN THE GULF.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 73 82 72 82 / 10 20 20 20
WEST KENDALL 69 84 68 84 / 10 20 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 71 83 70 84 / 10 20 10 20
HOMESTEAD 73 83 72 83 / 10 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 81 71 80 / 10 20 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 81 71 81 / 10 20 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 71 84 71 84 / 10 20 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 71 81 70 82 / 10 20 20 20
BOCA RATON 71 82 70 81 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 69 86 68 86 / 10 20 10 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17
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