512
FXUS62 KMFL 062320
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
620 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WITH RIDGING EXPANDING BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, SOFLO SHOULD SEE
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE
GULF COAST COULD STILL SEE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
IN GENERAL, RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP IN KEEPING MOST OF THE CELLS IN
THE CU FIELD FAIRLY SHALLOW, WITH MAINLY QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
STREAMING ESE TO WNW. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP GUSTY PERIODS IN PLACE, WITH LOCATIONS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE EXPERIENCING 20-25 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES.
LATEST KEY AND MFL SOUNDING DATA SHOW PWATS REMAINING IN THE 1.25-
1.50", ENOUGH TO KEEP SUPPORTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, FAVORING THE
WEST HALF OF SOFLO.
FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE, THE INITIAL NBM SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE REQUIRED ATTM WITH SOFLO REMAINING
UNDER A PREVAILING ESE WIND REGIME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITH MINIMAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING AVAILABLE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD HIT THE L-M80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS, AND INTO THE U80S OR EVEN 90 OVER INLAND AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE M-U60S TO L70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SE US. LOW CHANCES OF COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE LAKE REGION BEFORE STALLING AND
DISSIPATING, SO THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IF ANY HUMIDITY RELIEF THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS SE FL, AND UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 OVER SW FL. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE
60S/70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE, AROUND 10KT OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY PERIODS UP TO 25 KTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. AN
ISOLATED FAST MOVING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH BETTER CHANCES AROUND APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS, WITH WINDS BECOMING GENTLE AND MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE GULF
WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL BE 2-4 FT AND 1-2
FT IN THE GULF.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 82 71 82 / 10 20 10 20
WEST KENDALL 68 84 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 71 83 70 84 / 10 20 10 20
HOMESTEAD 72 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 81 71 81 / 10 20 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 81 71 81 / 20 20 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 71 83 70 84 / 10 20 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 71 81 69 82 / 20 30 10 10
BOCA RATON 71 81 70 82 / 20 30 10 10
NAPLES 68 86 66 85 / 10 20 20 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17
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