951
FXUS62 KMFL 230619
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 216 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE PALM
BEACH COUNTY BEACHES, AND A MODERATE RISK FOR BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WENT ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS OVER INTERIOR SW FL,
THINKING THAT WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME 40S AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, WHILE REMAINING MILDER CLOSER TO THE COASTS. OTHERWISE,
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL AND MFL
00Z SOUNDING SHOW PWATS IN THE 0.6-0.8" RANGE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS
ABOVE 1 KM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE STATE, EXPECT CURRENT
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMALS, AND NBM REMAINS SLOW
TO REACT TO THE TREND OF THE PAST 48 HOURS. PREVIOUS SHIFT WORKED ON
ADJUSTING TD/RH GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE LOWER VALUES, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LAKE REGION AND THE GULF AREAS WHERE RHS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S. SAME ADJUSTMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE APPLIED
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN ORDER TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA, PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
SOFLO WILL BE VERY WEAK AND KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OR EVEN
CALM AT TIMES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BENIGN
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH POPS REMAINING
IN SINGLE DIGITS EACH DAY.
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING,
WITH MODELS NOW PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY INTO THE LOW-MID 80S
FOR THE EAST COAST, AND MID-UPPER 80S FOR INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE HIGH OVER THE AREA
FURTHER TO OUR S/SE AS A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE E
CONUS DRAGS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE HOPING TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL BRING A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. THE LIMITED ENHANCED
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SEEMS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE
REGION IN THE LATE TUESDAY-EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, WITH EVEN
NBM NOW DEPICTING LOWER POPS EACH DAY (MAX VALUES IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE) OVER THE NORTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF SOFLO.
THEREFORE, THE DRY TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT BEING A MODEST INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
PERSISTING RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP A WIND PROFILE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE EACH DAY, WITH FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED KEEP REACHING THE MID-UPPER 80S,
AND EVEN A FEW SPOTS TOUCHING THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONTINUES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH AT ALL TERMINALS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME ESE AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
17-18Z WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT APF. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED AT ALL BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VERY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND
MONDAY. MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTH FL WILL FALL TO 25-35
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN ENHANCED FIRE WX RISK DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A REMINDER THAT GLADES, HENDRY, AND COLLIER
COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER COUNTY- ENACTED BURN BANS. PLEASE CONTACT
YOUR SPECIFIC COUNTY GOVERNMENT FOR DETAILS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 85 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 84 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 83 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 60 81 64 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 61 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 83 60 83 64 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 82 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 80 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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