113
FXUS62 KMFL 231712
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
112 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
- ENHANCED FIRE BEHAVIOR IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN LOW.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE NEXT
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NE CONUS, DRAGGING A SFC FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS/S GEORGIA REGION.
MEANWHILE, DEEP RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY
OF WEAK FLOW AT THE SFC, WITH LAND WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10
MPH OR EVEN CALM AT TIMES. MODEL AND MFL 00Z SOUNDING PWATS REMAIN
IN THE 0.7-0.8" RANGE, ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE 1KM. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DRY/WARMING TREND IN PLACE TODAY.
NBM DEW POINTS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGHER THAN OBSERVED VALUES, ALONG
WITH MORNING LOW TEMPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS. PREVIOUS SHIFT WORKED ON
ADJUSTING TD/T/RH GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE OBSERVED LOWER VALUES,
ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS. SAME ADJUSTMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
APPLIED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN ORDER TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
FOR TUESDAY, GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PENINSULA, WHICH PUSHES THE RIDGE FURTHER TO OUR S/SE. THE
PARENT TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE WEST
ATLANTIC AND LEAVE THE FRONT BEHIND AS A STATIONARY DECAYING FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE REGION. LATEST SOLUTIONS KEEP THE BEST
DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA, AND NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER SOFLO.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE DRY TREND IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING,
MODELS KEEP PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR COASTAL
AREAS, AND INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR INTERIOR AND MANY WEST COAST
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS/WX FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE NOW REACHING SOUTHWARD TO
AROUND I-75. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS (LIKE COOLER
500MB TEMPS AND VERY MODEST CAPE INCREASE) MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH BEST CHANCES
AROUND THE LAKE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING TO OUR
NE AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. AT THE SAME TIME, THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE STATE, LEADING BACK
TO A DRYING/WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER TROUGH SYSTEM PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH MOISTURE FILTERING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE. THIS WILL FAVOR THE EAST COAST FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY, WHILE RESEMBLING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS ALSO
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
ESTABLISHING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WINDS WILL VEER TO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AT EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE REMAINING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT KAPF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH PREVAILING BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, FAVORING
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, THEN BACK TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO END THE WORK WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS STILL EXPECTED FOR ALL PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
LOW RH VALUES AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TUESDAY
WITH MIN RH OVER INLAND AREAS IN THE 28-32 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE WX RISK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
REMINDER THAT GLADES, HENDRY, AND COLLIER COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER
COUNTY- ENACTED BURN BANS. PLEASE CONTACT YOUR SPECIFIC COUNTY
GOVERNMENT FOR DETAILS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 62 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 57 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 61 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 60 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 61 82 64 81 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 62 82 64 81 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 61 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 60 83 64 82 / 0 0 10 20
BOCA RATON 61 82 64 81 / 0 0 0 20
NAPLES 60 82 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...HADI
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