840
FXUS62 KMFL 250529
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
129 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
- A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND PUSH INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A RATHER BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN TODAY, SOME GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL START TO TAKE PLACE AS PWATS SLOWLY RISE AND WILL EVENTUALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 0.8 AND 1.0 INCHES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AND THE WEAKENING FRONT STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA, THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY, AREAS OF
FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE REST OF WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE TAKING PLACE AS PWATS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE AND
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO
NEAR 1.3 INCHES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
THESE ADDITIONAL INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT
PARKED OFF TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE FOR A LOW END CHANCE (20 TO
30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. WHILE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED, THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
THROUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST WHILE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A RATHER LARGE AND
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLED TO THE NORTH WILL
RAPIDLY WASH OUT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL SET UP A LIGHT
EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH REMNANT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT REMAINS POOLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW TOPPED, AN ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOUR CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE WARMER DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS, AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. SOME INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAY HIT
90 DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL START TO SHOW SIGNS OF CHANGE ONCE AGAIN
HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY, AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC MOVING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO FLATTEN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE KEEPING IT CENTERED AND
ELONGATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE GULF DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE ON SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DOES START TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF
THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. WHILE MOISTURE WILL POOL
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE LIMITING FACTOR HERE FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY COULD BE EXACTLY HOW MUCH THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. IF THE TROUGH HAS TROUBLE BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGING OVER THE REGION, THIS COULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH COULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LOW
TOPPED. WHILE ALL OF THIS IS TAKING PLACE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND DUE TO A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH TRYING TO
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE EXACT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT, THERE DOES REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL DUE TO POTENTIAL FRICTIONAL COASTAL CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ON SUNDAY WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE
LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES AREA WIDE HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KAPF, WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AFTER 10Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SE AFTER 15Z ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS.
AT KAPF, THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW AFTER 17Z AS A
GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS TODAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FEET OR LESS TODAY, HOWEVER, SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND COULD BECOME
HAZARDOUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DEVELOPS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PALM BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DEVELOPS IN THE
ATLANTIC. THIS SWELL WILL ALSO CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO PLUMMET OVER THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 30 TO 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COULD SEE VALUES DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT. THIS WILL CREATE
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 67 82 69 / 0 0 10 0
WEST KENDALL 84 62 84 64 / 0 0 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 84 67 83 68 / 10 0 10 0
HOMESTEAD 82 66 82 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 67 80 70 / 10 0 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 68 80 70 / 10 10 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 84 67 84 69 / 10 0 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 82 67 81 68 / 10 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 68 80 69 / 10 10 10 0
NAPLES 82 64 84 64 / 10 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page