440
FXUS62 KMFL 280457
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETEORIATE LATE
TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FORECAST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO SPRAWL EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL GET SOMEWHAT FLATTENED AND PUSHED BACK OVER THE GULF
AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY WELL OFF TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN THE
HIGH AND PUSH IT SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY. AS THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS TODAY, THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE AND RANGE FROM 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING, AND THEN
MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN LOW TOPPED, HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WHILE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE HEADING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION. AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG AND ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH PUSHES OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. THIS PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE WHEN THE BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME ALLOWING FOR WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
LATER ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST, WHERE WINDS COULD RANGE
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AS
WELL, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO
TAKE PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST, WHICH COULD HELP TO ENHANCE
RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE EXACT
DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION, A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER
SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY KEEPING LINGERING MOISTURE IN
PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN PLACE AREA WIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT, THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LOW
TOPPED, AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RATHER LIMITED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL STILL REMAIN TIGHT ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND GUSTY EAST NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL GENERALLY RISE TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY GET PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
FULLY BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WITH JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE BREEZE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON A SLOW MODERATING TREND WITH LOWER 80S
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VEER ONSHORE (NWRLY AT KAPF, NERLY AT ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS) BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL ENHANCE OUT
OF A NERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND A FRONT PASSAGE
TONIGHT. SUB-MVFR CIGS/VIS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL THAT IS
IMPACTED BY SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME WEST NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY WHILE SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A STRONG EAST NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE DEVELOPS AND SEAS
BUILD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES
TODAY WHILE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
INCREASE ACROSS ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HEADING INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND A
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL BUILDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 70 79 70 / 10 40 50 30
WEST KENDALL 86 66 81 67 / 10 30 50 30
OPA-LOCKA 85 69 80 69 / 10 40 60 30
HOMESTEAD 84 70 80 70 / 10 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 69 76 69 / 10 50 60 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 69 76 70 / 20 60 60 40
PEMBROKE PINES 86 70 80 70 / 10 50 60 40
WEST PALM BEACH 84 68 75 69 / 20 70 60 30
BOCA RATON 82 68 77 69 / 20 60 70 40
NAPLES 85 68 82 67 / 20 40 40 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ656-676.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...HADI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page