078
FXUS62 KMFL 281106
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
706 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 704 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETEORIATE LATE
TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FORECAST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
05Z MESOANALYSIS DATA IN TANDEM WITH RECENT ACARS/TOWR ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES IS INDICATIVE OF AN AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING THAT IS CHARACTERISTIC OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH FLORIDA
REMAINING SITUATED BETWEEN TWO LOBES OF SURFACE RIDGING, ONE OVER
THE GULF TO THE WEST AND A LARGER LOBE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO OUR EAST. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS MAY FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SATURATION OF PARCELS
OCCURS CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. THE HREF ENSEMBLE GIVES A MEDIUM CHANCE
(40-60%) OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 0.5 MILES NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
THROUGH 9AM THIS MORNING. THE RRFS AND NBM ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON
FOG POTENTIAL, DEPICTING ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES (<20%). REGARDLESS, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT AT DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AS DIURNAL INFLUENCES TAKE SHAPE.
THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE, AS LOBES OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND AN
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET-STREAM REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. WHILE 500MB FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT VIA
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH (SITUATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF) TODAY, A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING, ARRIVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A DEEPER POOL OF LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES) OUT AHEAD AND ALONG
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION, IN TANDEM WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE BACKGROUND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME AT THE SURFACE OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICKER
PROROGATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY WHILE PINNING THE GULF BREEZE DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL FACILITATE THE FOCI OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BEFORE PROPAGATING WESTWARD TOWARDS COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE RRFS, HRRR, AND
RAP ALL DEPICT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN
THE 1000-700MB LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, HOWEVER IT
WILL BE OVERLAIN BY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALOFT.
WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE VERTICALLY CAPPED, WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ALONG THE BEST MESOSCALE ASCENT (BOUNDARY COLLISIONS).
THE HREF LPMM (LOCALIZED PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN) HINTS AT THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING MAINLY BELOW 1 INCH.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY ENHANCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE
REMAINING OUT OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS A STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST, WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE EVEN
HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTS IN THE 35-39 MPH RANGE ACROSS
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN'S 10 METER WIND GUST OUTPUT. LOOKING
AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR
THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN TANDEM
WITH PEAK DIURNAL MIXING. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS DON'T DEPICT
MUCH IN THE FORM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 AND THE INSTABILITY
LADEN WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM MAY FACILITATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW-TOPPED IN
NATURE, CONTINUOUS ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY VIA COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS URBAN AREAS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE HREF LPMM DEPICTS THIS THREAT WELL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF A
FEW LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL AND METRO
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST COAST METRO (MID 80S). A FEW POCKETS OF
LOW 90S ARE NOT OUT OF THE CARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
WITH FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES (APPARENT TEMPERATURES) FEELING LIKE
THE LOW 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE SURFACE AS THE STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REALIZED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S
AS OPPOSED TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS COASTAL &
INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA LOCALES. THE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
DRY AIR IN ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT 30-50% RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED ENVELOPE OF DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER
TIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE BREEZE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK WILL BE ON A SLOW MODERATING TREND WITH LOWER 80S ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING ENE AROUND 10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT APF. WINDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS AREA WATERS AT DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY DETEORIATE LATER TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A QUICK
ONSET OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY ENHANCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS, VEERING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OUT OF A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OUT
OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE IN THE DAY WILL USHER IN A RAPID UPTICK IN SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD FROM 2-4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO DANGEROUS 10+
FEET HEIGHTS TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING GULFSTREAM CURRENT WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. A SLUE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL VARYING ONSET
TIMING IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA'S LOCAL WATERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PREVAILING
AT MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTY WIND SURGE TONIGHT, THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL EXPAND TO THE ENTIRETY OF THE EAST COAST AND REMAIN IN EFFECT
WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 70 79 70 / 20 50 60 40
WEST KENDALL 86 66 82 67 / 20 50 50 40
OPA-LOCKA 86 70 80 69 / 20 50 60 40
HOMESTEAD 83 70 81 70 / 20 40 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 70 77 69 / 20 60 60 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 70 77 70 / 20 60 70 50
PEMBROKE PINES 86 70 80 70 / 20 60 60 40
WEST PALM BEACH 84 69 76 69 / 30 60 60 40
BOCA RATON 83 68 77 69 / 20 60 70 40
NAPLES 85 68 83 67 / 40 50 40 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ656-676.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...CMF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page