591
FXUS62 KMFL 282251
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
651 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 647 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETEORIATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
- WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY, WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
- SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING
OVER METRO SE FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND IS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND
WIND, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SOUTH AND LIES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH
SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES) TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF SE FLORIDA WEST ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE GULF
COAST. THE PREVAILING N-NE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM METRO SE FLORIDA, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PALM BEACHES. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK
OF NOTABLE FORCING AND WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT
AND REACH PALM BEACH COUNTY DURING THE PRE-DAWN ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE, WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE POP FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE FROM 20-30% THIS
EVENING TO 40-60% OVER PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY, WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INTO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-
1.7 INCHES, RANGING FROM 60-70% FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY WESTWARD
ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND GLADES COUNTY, TO 20-40% OVER SOUTHERN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. CONTINUED LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING, WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BAROCLINICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THUNDER CHANCES STAYING MAINLY IN
THE 30-40% RANGE.
AS FAR AS QPF/RAIN AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED, THERE'S A FAIRLY LARGE
SPREAD IN THE QPF GUIDANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT, WITH
ENSEMBLE/PROBABILISTIC 24-HOUR RAINFALL THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY RANGING
FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A REASONABLE LOW-END SCENARIO,
TO CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN A REASONABLE HIGH-END SCENARIO. THE
OFFICIAL/MOST LIKELY QPF LEANS A BIT ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
DISTRIBUTION, RANGING FROM 0.5-1 INCH OVER METRO SE FLORIDA TO 0.1-
0.25 INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON A
CONDUCIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN (SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM STRONG LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE WIND) FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. THE PRIMARY LIMITED FACTORS FOR
WIDESPREAD HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE: LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND THE LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/FORCING. NEVERTHELESS,
NBM 24-HOUR 90% PERCENTILE QPF (REASONABLE HIGH-END) THROUGH 8 PM
SUNDAY SHOWS 1.5-2 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE SE FLORIDA METRO/COASTAL
CORRIDOR, WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION LPMM SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES. THEREFORE,
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE AND IF THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL DATA COMES IN AND CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP, WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST. LEANED CLOSER TO THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
WIND/WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE, WITH 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUES ROUGHLY REPRESENTING PEAK GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. WHILE
THESE VALUES ARE BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS, THIS WILL BE CLOSELY
WATCHED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES LOWER
ON SUNDAY DUE TO SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
INCREASING CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY:
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAKING SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA, WITH ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO KEEP POPS IN THE 40-60% RANGE. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER EAST COAST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BUT EXHIBIT A DIURNAL TREND OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS
WITH HIGHEST RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WIND IS EXPECTED TO STAY ELEVATED ON MONDAY, BUT NOT QUITE AS WINDY
AS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY, HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80 ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE
MID 80S OVER SW FLORIDA.
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK:
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY A CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TO MOVE OVER AND EAST OF FLORIDA, PROVIDING A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SE
DIRECTION, WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS EACH DAY MAINLY OVER EAST COAST METRO AREAS (POPS GENERALLY
20%), BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S ATLANTIC COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA ALONG SW FLORIDA COAST NEAR KAPF WILL
LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 03Z, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 06Z. SHRA AND A FEW TSRA INCREASE MAINLY IN THE PBI AREA
GENERALLY AFTER 06Z, FOLLOWED BY THE FLL-MIA CORRIDOR AFTER 12Z.
PROB30 WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 06Z FOR PBI, AND AFTER 12Z FOR THE MIA-FLL AREA
TERMINALS AS WELL AS KAPF. NE-E WIND GENERALLY 10-12 KNOTS
INCREASE AFTER 06Z-12Z TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. NE-E
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10+ FEET
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVER THE GULF WATERS OFF SW
FLORIDA, WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KNOTS RANGE WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WIND AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING ON TUESDAY,
BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT ON SUNDAY AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, AND CONTINUE MOST OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION,
ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE COAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST THE BROWARD COUNTY COAST. THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO BROWARD COUNTY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 80 71 79 / 30 50 40 60
WEST KENDALL 66 82 67 82 / 20 40 40 50
OPA-LOCKA 69 81 70 82 / 30 50 40 60
HOMESTEAD 70 81 70 81 / 20 30 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 78 70 78 / 40 60 50 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 77 70 78 / 50 60 50 60
PEMBROKE PINES 70 82 71 82 / 40 50 50 60
WEST PALM BEACH 69 76 69 78 / 60 70 50 60
BOCA RATON 69 77 69 79 / 60 70 60 60
NAPLES 68 82 67 84 / 30 50 10 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ656-676.
SHORT TERM...MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....MOLLEDA
AVIATION...MOLLEDA
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