768
FXUS62 KMFL 142301
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
701 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
- REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NAPLES METRO DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE
NEWMAN FIRE.
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, WHILE A CONTRASTING
BROAD/WIDESPREAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SE CONUS AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AROUND
NORTHERN FLORIDA.
OVERALL, EXPECT THE ONGOING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 00Z MFL SOUNDING AND MODEL
SOUNDING KEEP PWATS BELOW 1 INCH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT
LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW, VERY SHALLOW MARINE
SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AT TIMES. THESE
WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND LIGHT. ALSO, PERIODS OF BREEZY ENE WINDS ARE
ALSO LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG ATLANTIC
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS MAY PUSH SMOKE
FROM THE NEWMAN WILDFIRE TOWARDS THE GULF SHORE AND OTHER
SURROUNDING AREAS. AS A RESULT OF THIS, LOCAL AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE
LIKELY AND CAN IMPACT SENSITIVE GROUPS AS FIREFIGHTERS CONTINUE TO
WORK ON MITIGATING THE FIRE. ADDITIONALLY, SMOKE CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
LOWER VISIBILITIES ON ROADWAYS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR THE ATLANTIC
SIDE OF SOFLO, WHILE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO
BREAK DOWN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER,
WITH THE RIDGE BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, IT WILL NOT BREAK DOWN
ENTIRELY AND RATHER JUST 'FLATTEN' OUT TO AN EXTENT. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN CURVES OFF NORTHWARDS, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-
AMPLIFIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO THE POINT WHERE IT FORCES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SOME MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND WEAKENS THE RIDGING PATTERN
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES STILL KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS DATE RANGE (APRIL 18-20),
HINTING THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO HOLD ONTO ITS
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER. IF THIS TREND HOLDS FIRM, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MINUS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF INCREASED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE PATTERN AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AFTER IT ENTERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA, PWATS MAY RISE BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK (1.2-1.4") WHICH CAN SUPPORT
SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN,
PARTICULARLY AS A RESULT OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
OVERALL, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND CLUSTERS AT THIS TIME FAVOR A
DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND EVEN
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS DO NOT FAVOR A HIGHLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH TOTAL
QPF FOR EACH 24-HOUR PERIOD BEING BELOW 0.5". AS A RESULT, THE
LATEST FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND UNDERNEATH THIS LARGE RIDGING PATTERN
AS WE SEE HIGHS RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST
METRO, UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE GULF COAST, AND LOW TO MID 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE EACH NIGHT FROM THE LOW 60S FOR
THE GULF COAST, INTERIOR, AND LAKE REGIONS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
REMAIN MODERATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF ENE BREEZY PERIODS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 15-16Z, WITH A POSSIBLE WESTERLY BREEZE AT APF
AFTER 17Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WINDS DECREASE BACK TO A MODERATE BREEZE BEGINNING TODAY, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED WITH WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KTS, BUT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE AVOIDED. SEAS OF 4-6 FEET EXPECTED IN THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS BRISK ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 80 69 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 64 82 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 68 81 69 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 68 80 69 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 69 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 67 79 67 81 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 68 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 64 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...17
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