812
FXUS62 KMFL 152300
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
- REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NAPLES METRO DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE
NEWMAN FIRE.
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RIDGE/DEEP HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ITS GROUND
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE FL PENINSULA DESPITE A RATHER COMPLEX
WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO SOFLO THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEMS PUSH EASTWARD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A WARM AND DRY WEATHER REGIME THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
00Z MFL SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA KEEP PWATS BELOW 1 INCH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND A SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MASS BETWEEN
1- 9KM. RADAR DATA SHOWS LESS MARINE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY, WITH
VERY LOW CHANCES OF SHALLOW MARINE SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
SHOWER SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VERY BRIEF.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA, EXPECT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TO RELAX A LITTLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHORTER PERIODS OF
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS, BUT STILL EXPECTING SOME GUSTY PERIODS AROUND
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS
MAY PUSH SMOKE FROM THE NEWMAN WILDFIRE TOWARDS THE GULF SHORE AND
OTHER SURROUNDING AREAS. LOCAL AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AS FIREFIGHTERS WORK ON MITIGATING THE FIRE. OTHER SMOKE-
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS MAY INCLUDE LOWER VISIBILITIES ON ROADWAYS AND
MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS LESS SAFE IN CERTAIN AREAS.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
MUCH OF SOFLO, WITH POSSIBLE UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
LONG TERM ENSEMBLES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER, WITH THE
RIDGE BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, IT WILL NOT BREAK DOWN ENTIRELY AND
RATHER JUST BE WEAKENED OR 'FLATTENED OUT' IN A SENSE. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ADVECTS OFFSHORE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-
AMPLIFIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO THE POINT WHERE IT FORCES SOME DOWNSTREAM
VORTICITY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING PATTERN. MOISTURE
WOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARDS.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES STILL KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND THE 90-95TH
PERCENTILE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, HINTING THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO HOLD ONTO ITS CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND DESPITE INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE TRYING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. IF THIS TREND HOLDS FIRM,
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MINUS SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF INCREASED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE PATTERN AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS SOME MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS FROM A LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AFTER IT ENTERS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE RIDGE
FINALLY LOSES ITS STRENGTH, PWATS MAY RISE BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK (1.2-1.4") WHICH CAN
SUPPORT SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN, PARTICULARLY AS A RESULT OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
OVERALL, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND CLUSTERS AT THIS TIME STILL FAVOR
DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK, AND EVEN
THESE FEW WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME DO NOT FAVOR A
HIGHLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH TOTAL QPF FOR EACH 24-HOUR PERIOD BEING
BELOW 0.5". AS A RESULT, THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
RETURNING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLES DO HIGHLIGHT A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEING
POSSIBLE AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH ON THAT GIVEN ITS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EACH DAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND UNDERNEATH THIS LARGE RIDGING PATTERN AS WE SEE HIGHS RISE
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO, UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S FOR THE GULF COAST, AND LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE EACH NIGHT FROM THE LOW 60S FOR
THE GULF COAST, INTERIOR, AND LAKE REGIONS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WORKS
SOUTHWARDS AND WASHES OUT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, A COOL
DOWN BACK TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE ENE LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT, THEN BACK TO AROUND 10KT,
LIKELY WITH WITH NO PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
A MODERATE BREEZE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH A GENTLE BREEZE IN THE GULF
WATERS. SEAS OF 4-6 FEET EXPECTED IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2
FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS. SEAS FALL A BIT FURTHER IN THE
ATLANTIC TODAY TO 2-4 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS RANGE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK WHILE GULF SEAS REMAIN AT 1-2 FEET OR LESS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
THIS WEEK. WHILE THIS RISK MAY DECREASE A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND, AN ELEVATED RISK MAY STILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 69 82 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 65 84 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 68 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 68 82 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 80 72 83 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 69 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 70 85 72 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 68 81 69 83 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 69 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 64 85 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...17
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