770
FXUS62 KMFL 161929
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 328 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COULD BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
- REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NAPLES METRO DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE
NEWMAN FIRE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
SFC ANALYSES AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP THE RIDGE/DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS HOLDING ITS GROUND FOR TWO MORE DAYS, BUT
THE STORM SYSTEMS LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BREAK THE HIGH PRESSURE GRIP ON THE SE STATES. IN THE
MEANTIME, THE FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTING CLOSER TO
SOFLO. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A WARM AND DRY WEATHER REGIME
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
00Z MFL SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA KEEP PWATS BELOW 1 INCH FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND THE LOWER 1KM, AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING
UP TO 9KM. SO FAR, RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MARINE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF
SHALLOW MARINE SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
AND AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS, ANY SHOWER THAT ACTUALLY REACHES THE
COAST SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VERY BRIEF.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAK,
RESULTING IN SHORTER PERIODS OF BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTY PERIODS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MUCH OF SOFLO,
WITH POSSIBLE UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOW 90S OVER THE WEST COAST.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND, AND UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT A
GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US, WHICH COULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND, ERODING THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF
AND WEAKENING THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS GRADUAL PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH MODELS PWATS
SURGING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (1.1-
1.3 INCHES). THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT DOES, IT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FRONT DROPPING ALONG THE PENINSULA EARLY
IN THE WEEK, CLEARING THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
EVENING AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS
SOLUTION; A DEEPER, FASTER TROUGH (AND THUS A STRONGER, FASTER
FRONT) COULD RESULT IN GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA,
WHILE A SLOWER, WEAKER TROUGH COULD LEAD TO HIGHER QPFS FOR THE
REGION. FOR NOW, THE NBM SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER, FASTER SOLUTION
WITH 30-40% POPS EACH DAY, AND QPFS LESS THAN 1 INCH. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SOLUTION AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EACH AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS COULD COOL BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS
NEXT WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS EACH NIGHT COULD
DIP INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND DOWN TO THE 60S ALONG
THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS. FOR THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS, EASTERLY WINDS AROUND
10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
22-23Z, THEN DECREASING INTO THE 5-8KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. FOR APF, A
GULF BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 00Z THEN BECOMING L/V.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
A MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL
SET UP OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL DROP TO 2-4 FT IN THE
ATLANTIC AND REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BREEZY, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 67 86 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 70 86 72 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 70 85 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 82 73 83 / 0 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 83 72 83 / 0 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 72 87 73 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 71 85 / 0 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 71 83 72 83 / 0 10 0 0
NAPLES 66 87 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17
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