456
FXUS62 KMFL 180721
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
321 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
- PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN LOWER VISIBILITIES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL US DURING THE PERIOD, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY, GRADUALLY ERODING THE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF AND WEAKENING THE SURFACE HIGH. CONCURRENTLY, AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
GRADUAL PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE FILTERING BACK
INTO THE REGION, WITH MODELED PWATS SURGING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (1.1-1.3 INCHES). THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON (POPS IN THE
15-20% RANGE). CHANCES ON SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CONSTRAINED TO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE GULF BREEZE PUSHES IN, BUT CHANCES ON
SUNDAY COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH
ALONG THE PENINSULA.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS GRADUAL MOISTENING, ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS INLAND FL. HREF AND SREF SHOW A LOW-END (20-
40%)CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR BETWEEN 4 - 9 AM
TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING NEAR THE SURFACE AND
PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY AND ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR FL, WHILE
THEY'LL MOST LIKELY CAP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. LOWS EACH DAY WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LOW 70S ALONG THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DROPPING
ALONG THE PENINSULA BETWEEN MONDAY-TUESDAY AND STALLING OUT OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE AREA STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN
INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS COULD
COOL BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. LOWS EACH MIDNIGHT COULD DIP INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, AND DOWN TO THE 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND BACK
HALF OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, RIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD THEN DROP ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND REACH THE FL PENINSULA SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM IN PLACE, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF IN
TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE, MOVING EAST OR SOUTH AND APPROACHING THE
PENINSULA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL ON
THURSDAY, BUT TONIGHT'S RUNS SHOW IT MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CUBA.
THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD (UP TO 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD).
WHILE STILL GENERALLY UNLIKELY (AND SUPPORTED ONLY BY A MINORITY OF
THE MODEL ENSEMBLES), THIS SOLUTION, AND THE ENTIRETY OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
CHANGES OR INCREASING CONFIDENCE. THE NBM MOSTLY SUPPORTS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE'RE KEEPING LOW-END POPS AND
QPFS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY UP TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT KAPF WHERE A GULF BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
A MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL
SET UP OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF BREEZY, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH WINDS 20-25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS, AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 12
FT ALONG THE GULF STREAM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 72 87 72 / 10 0 20 10
WEST KENDALL 87 69 89 68 / 10 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 87 72 88 72 / 10 0 20 10
HOMESTEAD 85 72 87 70 / 10 0 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 72 85 72 / 10 0 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 88 74 90 73 / 10 0 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 84 71 86 72 / 0 0 20 20
BOCA RATON 84 72 85 72 / 0 0 20 20
NAPLES 87 71 85 69 / 0 10 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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