724
FXUS62 KMFL 190754
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 344 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES, WITH COVERAGE
MOST LIKELY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREA.
- A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT,
BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
- PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN LOWER VISIBILITIES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY,
FINALLY BREAKING THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND WEAKENING THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE. CONCURRENTLY, AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT
NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN EXPANSE, AND IN DOING SO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACE THIS FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST, AND
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT REACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY MID-
DAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL NEAR THE SURFACE
AND UP TO THE 700MB LEVEL (WITH PWATS REACHING THE 1.3-1.6 INCH
RANGE), WHILE EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLACKEN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF BREEZE TO FURTHER PUSH INLAND AND MEET THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREA, SHIFTING THE
LOCATION WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TO
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN REACHES OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREA. NBM
CAME IN TOO LOW ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS RUN, SO WE ADDED POPS AND
POTTHUNDER UP TO THE 20-30% RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE, AND A 1 IN 10 CHANCE OF UP TO 2-3 INCHES OVER
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING, AND IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY STALL OUT ALONG THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND POTENTIALLY
THE 90S DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
APPROACH; THIS COULD HELP TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES. CONDITIONS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS
THROUGH AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST, BUT COULD RISE UP TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FL WHERE RAIN WILL BE MINIMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN BOTH FEATURES TO TIGHTEN AND ENHANCE THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS RANGING
FROM 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONCURRENTLY, DRY, COOL AIR WILL
FILTER BACK OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH PWATS DROPPING TO
THE 0.5-0.8 INCH RANGE, WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGH IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT COULD DIP INTO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND DOWN TO THE 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES TOWARDS THE BACK HALF OF THE
WEEK. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING
ON THE BACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, RIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD DROP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
AND REACH THE FL PENINSULA SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FL STRAITS AND THIS ADDITIONAL
FORCING MECHANISM IN PLACE, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO SHOW A SURFACE LOW OR WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE, MOVING EAST OR SOUTH AND
APPROACHING THE PENINSULA. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD (UP TO 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD). WHILE STILL GENERALLY UNLIKELY (AND
SUPPORTED ONLY BY A MINORITY OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLES), THIS SOLUTION,
AND THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES OR INCREASING CONFIDENCE. THE NBM
MOSTLY SUPPORTS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE'RE
KEEPING LOW-END POPS AND QPFS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
CONDITIONS WARM BACK UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA, WHILE A SURFACE HIGH RETREATS. AS
A RESULT, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP ON EACH COAST, WITH THE GULF BREEZE THE STRONGER
OF THE TWO. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
BREEZES WILL MEET. IMPACTS TO THE SITES COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY, REACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY, WHILE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A MORE DRAMATIC WIND SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8-12 FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM BY WEDNESDAY. GULF SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 86 72 83 70 / 20 20 60 30
WEST KENDALL 88 68 85 66 / 30 20 60 30
OPA-LOCKA 88 72 85 68 / 30 20 60 30
HOMESTEAD 87 71 85 70 / 20 10 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 72 81 70 / 20 20 60 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 72 80 69 / 30 20 70 20
PEMBROKE PINES 89 73 85 70 / 30 20 60 30
WEST PALM BEACH 86 71 80 68 / 20 20 60 10
BOCA RATON 85 72 80 69 / 20 20 70 20
NAPLES 85 69 87 65 / 10 0 30 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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