647
FXUS62 KMFL 202321
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 719 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. SO FAR, IT'S MOSTLY BEEN SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, BUT AS WE CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS, MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THE LATEST HREF AND
HRRR/RRFS INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
03Z, PARTICULARLY INTO THE GREATER MIAMI METRO.
BEYOND 03Z, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY BUT NOT GUSTY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE LOW 60S INLAND WITH COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 35-45% RANGE INLAND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LEADS TO QUIET WEATHER. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EAST WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WEST AND INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO PLAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO POP
UP ALONG THE MARTIN/PALM BEACH COUNTIES BOUNDARY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND PROBABILITIES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE 50-60% RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE'S A 1 IN 10
CHANCE OF 2-4 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THIS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY, AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP COULD BE
STRONG IN NATURE GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, AND
THE STRONGEST COULD PRODUCE SOME SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL (PENNY SIZED OR SMALLER). WHEN IT COMES TO THE WIND
THREAT, THE FORECAST LAPSE RATES, DCAPE VALUES AND PWATS ARE ALL
WITHIN RANGE OF THE CRITERIA NEEDED FOR SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS TOO LOW (SBCAPE < 2000 J/KG). AS FOR THE
HAIL THREAT, THE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE THERE, BUT THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM (500MB TS ~10 DEGC),
AND CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TOO LOW, FOR ANY HAIL THAT DOES
DEVELOP IN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO GROW TO AN INCH OR MORE IN SIZE.
AS SUCH, CHANCES OF SEVERE IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE VERY MARGINAL THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY
WINDS OR SMALL PEA-SIZED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT ALONG THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, AND A DRY, BREEZY AIR MASS
WILL WORK IN OVER THE REGION, WITH PWATS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 0.5-
0.8 INCH RANGE AND SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP BY A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON
TUESDAY. LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND
DOWN TO THE 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY,
SUPPORTING RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UNDER 1 INCH), INDICATIVE
OF A DRY AIRMASS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. WHILE ISOLATED COASTAL OR SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS CANNOT
BE FULLY RULED OUT, THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS SUPPRESSED COVERAGE AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TOWARDS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY BEGIN
THURSDAY, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND DROPPING ACROSS THE GULF
ON THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY
DEPICTING A LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF IN TANDEM
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, RECENT MODEL TRENDS KEEP THIS FEATURE FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE GENERALLY MODEST, WITH EVEN THE
HIGH-END (90TH PERCENTILE) VALUES REMAINING BELOW 0.5 INCHES.
WHILE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SUPPORT HIGHER END VALUES, THE NBM
STILL FAVORS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE REGION.
BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. MAY SAG CLOSER TO THE REGION AND BRING AT LEAST A LOW-END CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, THOUGH THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING
AND STRENGTH.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MIDWEEK,
WITH EAST COAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND NOTABLY COOL INTERIOR LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO DRIER AIR WITH GUSTY ENE
WINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY MORNING
AND THEY COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BOUTS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH REMNANT SHOWERS THOUGH THAT THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE COMING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
BOATING CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A WIND SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE THE FRONT
CLEARS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8-12 FT OVER THE GULF STREAM BY TUESDAY.
GULF SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-6 FT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
A DRY, BREEZY AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS AIR MASS COULD EXACERBATE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. AS OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY ARE HOVERING IN THE
40-45% RANGE, WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS ARE RANGING FROM 13-16 MPH AND
FPFS ARE REMAIN IN THE 2.6-3.4 RANGE. AS IT STANDS, THIS RAISES
SOME CONCERNS FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE THERE YET REGARDING IMPACTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 79 68 78 / 30 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 67 80 64 80 / 30 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 70 80 67 80 / 30 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 70 79 68 79 / 40 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 77 69 77 / 30 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 77 68 77 / 30 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 71 81 69 81 / 30 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 69 77 67 77 / 20 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 70 77 68 78 / 30 0 0 0
NAPLES 67 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...RAG
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