197
FXUS62 KMFL 210556
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION, BRINGING PERIODS OF BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
- RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 35-40% RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. SO FAR, IT'S MOSTLY BEEN SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, BUT AS WE CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS, MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THE LATEST HREF AND
HRRR/RRFS INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
03Z, PARTICULARLY INTO THE GREATER MIAMI METRO.
BEYOND 03Z, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY BUT NOT GUSTY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE LOW 60S INLAND WITH COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 35-45% RANGE INLAND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LEADS TO QUIET WEATHER. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EAST WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WEST AND INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO PLAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO POP
UP ALONG THE MARTIN/PALM BEACH COUNTIES BOUNDARY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND PROBABILITIES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE 50-60% RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE'S A 1 IN 10
CHANCE OF 2-4 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THIS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY, AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP COULD BE
STRONG IN NATURE GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, AND
THE STRONGEST COULD PRODUCE SOME SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL (PENNY SIZED OR SMALLER). WHEN IT COMES TO THE WIND
THREAT, THE FORECAST LAPSE RATES, DCAPE VALUES AND PWATS ARE ALL
WITHIN RANGE OF THE CRITERIA NEEDED FOR SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS TOO LOW (SBCAPE < 2000 J/KG). AS FOR THE
HAIL THREAT, THE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE THERE, BUT THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM (500MB TS ~10 DEGC),
AND CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TOO LOW, FOR ANY HAIL THAT DOES
DEVELOP IN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO GROW TO AN INCH OR MORE IN SIZE.
AS SUCH, CHANCES OF SEVERE IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE VERY MARGINAL THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY
WINDS OR SMALL PEA-SIZED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT ALONG THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, AND A DRY, BREEZY AIR MASS
WILL WORK IN OVER THE REGION, WITH PWATS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 0.5-
0.8 INCH RANGE AND SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP BY A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON
TUESDAY. LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND
DOWN TO THE 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY,
SUPPORTING RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UNDER 1 INCH), INDICATIVE
OF A DRY AIRMASS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. WHILE ISOLATED COASTAL OR SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS CANNOT
BE FULLY RULED OUT, THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS SUPPRESSED COVERAGE AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TOWARDS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY BEGIN
THURSDAY, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND DROPPING ACROSS THE GULF
ON THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY
DEPICTING A LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF IN TANDEM
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, RECENT MODEL TRENDS KEEP THIS FEATURE FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE GENERALLY MODEST, WITH EVEN THE
HIGH-END (90TH PERCENTILE) VALUES REMAINING BELOW 0.5 INCHES.
WHILE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SUPPORT HIGHER END VALUES, THE NBM
STILL FAVORS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE REGION.
BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. MAY SAG CLOSER TO THE REGION AND BRING AT LEAST A LOW-END CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, THOUGH THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING
AND STRENGTH.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MIDWEEK,
WITH EAST COAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND NOTABLY COOL INTERIOR LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL HAPPEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATLANTIC
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z, BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERTE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
BOATING CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A WIND SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE THE FRONT
CLEARS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8-12 FT OVER THE GULF STREAM BY TUESDAY.
GULF SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-6 FT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
A DRY, BREEZY AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS AIR MASS COULD EXACERBATE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. AS OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY ARE HOVERING IN THE
40-45% RANGE, WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS ARE RANGING FROM 13-16 MPH AND
FPFS ARE REMAIN IN THE 2.6-3.4 RANGE. AS IT STANDS, THIS RAISES
SOME CONCERNS FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE THERE YET REGARDING IMPACTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 68 78 68 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 80 64 80 65 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 80 67 80 68 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 79 68 79 68 / 10 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 69 77 70 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 68 77 68 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 81 69 81 69 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 77 67 77 67 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 77 68 78 69 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 85 63 84 65 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...17
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