997
FXUS62 KMFL 210806
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION, BRINGING PERIODS OF BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
- RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 35-40% RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
MODELS AND SFC ANALYSES SHOW A SYNOPTIC SCENARIO DOMINATED BY AN
EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND FLORIDA IN THE WAKE
OF A FROPA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOFLO, WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE, EXPECT
GENERALLY NE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. COASTAL LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL MARINE HAZARDS AFFECTING THE
BEACHES AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE
REFER TO THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, THEN RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 35-40% RANGE OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN SOFLO. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT FIRE HAZARDS TODAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE DRIER TREND TO CONTINUE, WHILE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS START TO RELAX. THIS WILL BRING A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
SPEEDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COOLER AIRMASS AND THE PERSISTING ENE WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF SOFLO, AND
LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN UPPER
LVL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE SE CONUS AND MOVING INTO THE
GULF FOR THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME. LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW AN ASSOCIATED
LOW LVL FEATURE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF, BUT REMAINING VERY
WEAK. THE ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BRING LOW-END POP
COVERAGE (15-25%) EACH DAY, WITH BEST CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND
QPF VALUES IN THE HALF INCH RANGE OR LOWER.
GFS AND EURO BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SE CONUS AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO START THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAY REACH. REGARDLESS, THE
ARRIVAL OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND FURTHER RELAXING WINDS OVER SOFLO
THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS OR EVEN CALM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH OVERALL FLOW ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THIS
MAY FAVOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOFLO EACH AFTERNOON. THEN CONDITIONS MAY
BEGIN TO DRY AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMALS THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ALONG EAST COAST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 70S, AND MORNING LOWS OVER INTERIOR AREAS IN THE LOW 60S. A
GRADUAL WARMING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS, AND MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL HAPPEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATLANTIC
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z, BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8-11 FT OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND WIND SPEEDS OF 20KT OR HIGHER. GULF SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-6 FT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AN INCREASING SWELL WILL ALSO BRING HIGH SURF ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COASTLINE FOR WHICH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
DRIER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND
EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST MODEL DATA BRINGS
POSSIBLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER INTERIOR AND WEST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
20 FT WINDS MAY REACH THE 15-20MPH RANGE AT TIMES, ALONG WITH
FPFS IN THE 2.6-3.4 RANGE. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS, AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 68 78 68 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 80 64 79 64 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 80 68 79 67 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 79 68 79 68 / 10 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 69 77 69 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 68 77 69 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 81 69 81 69 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 77 67 77 67 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 77 68 77 69 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 85 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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