050
FXUS62 KMFL 211734
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 126 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
- WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-35% RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
MODELS AND SFC ANALYSES SHOW A SYNOPTIC SCENARIO DOMINATED BY AN
EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND FLORIDA IN THE WAKE
OF A FROPA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOFLO, WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE, EXPECT
GENERALLY NE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. COASTAL LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL MARINE HAZARDS AFFECTING THE
BEACHES AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE
REFER TO THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, THEN RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 35-40% RANGE OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN SOFLO. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT FIRE HAZARDS TODAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE DRIER TREND TO CONTINUE, WHILE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS START TO RELAX. THIS WILL BRING A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
SPEEDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COOLER AIRMASS AND THE PERSISTING ENE WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF SOFLO, AND
LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN UPPER
LVL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE SE CONUS AND MOVING INTO THE
GULF FOR THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME. LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW AN ASSOCIATED
LOW LVL FEATURE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF, BUT REMAINING VERY
WEAK. THE ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BRING LOW-END POP
COVERAGE (15-25%) EACH DAY, WITH BEST CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND
QPF VALUES IN THE HALF INCH RANGE OR LOWER.
GFS AND EURO BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SE CONUS AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO START THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAY REACH. REGARDLESS, THE
ARRIVAL OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND FURTHER RELAXING WINDS OVER SOFLO
THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS OR EVEN CALM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH OVERALL FLOW ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THIS
MAY FAVOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOFLO EACH AFTERNOON. THEN CONDITIONS MAY
BEGIN TO DRY AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMALS THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ALONG EAST COAST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 70S, AND MORNING LOWS OVER INTERIOR AREAS IN THE LOW 60S. A
GRADUAL WARMING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS, AND MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS GUSTY CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8-11 FT OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND WIND SPEEDS OF 20KT OR HIGHER. GULF SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-6 FT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AN INCREASING SWELL WILL ALSO BRING HIGH SURF ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COASTLINE FOR WHICH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
DRIER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION,
AND EXACERBATES THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST MODEL DATA
BRINGS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 20 FT WINDS MAY REACH
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE AT TIMES, ALONG WITH FPFS IN THE 2.6-3.4
RANGE. BECAUSE OF THIS, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 78 68 79 / 0 0 10 20
WEST KENDALL 64 79 64 80 / 0 0 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 68 79 67 80 / 0 0 10 20
HOMESTEAD 68 79 68 80 / 0 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 77 69 78 / 0 0 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 77 69 78 / 0 0 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 69 81 69 82 / 0 0 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 67 77 67 78 / 0 0 10 10
BOCA RATON 68 77 69 78 / 0 0 10 20
NAPLES 63 84 64 83 / 0 0 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CWC
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