570
FXUS62 KMFL 010627
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH UNSEASONABLE HEAT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. THE ODDS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF
4) HEAT RISK ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO ON SATURDAY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
06Z MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CENTRUM OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF THIS MORNING. ACARS DATA FROM LOCAL AIRPORTS IN TANDEM WITH
GOES EAST DERIVED TOWR SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.
ABOVE THIS STOUT SURFACE INVERSION AND BELOW A HIGHER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN AT 750MB, ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINS AT ROUGHLY 4,000-5,000 FEET FOR THE CONTINUATION
OF A DECK OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION. BRISK MOVING CIRRUS ROUNDS OUT THE TOP OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A ROBUST JETSTREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH SURFACE RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA, WINDS
HAVE DECOUPLED ACROSS INLAND LOCALES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER PRESENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY, AND GLADES COUNTIES. RECENT HREF
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MEDIUM (40- 60%) PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 0.25 MILES ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH
9AM THIS MORNING. REFS MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE SAME PROBABILISTIC VALUES. INLAND ROUTES SUCH AS US-29,
COLLIER BLVD, ALLIGATOR ALLEY, AND TAMIAMI TRAIL COULD SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING FOG.
OUR WEATHER REGIME TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DICTATED BY SURFACE
FEATURES IN OUR VICINITY AND MESOSCALE DIURNAL PROCESSES. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
AXIS OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN BACKGROUND WIND FLOW OUT OF A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TODAY. THIS SETUP AT THE SURFACE COMBINED
WITH RESIDUAL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST). A PINNED ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES INLAND (LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
THE EVERGLADES) COULD EVEN REACH THE MID 90S. THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE (1 IN 10 CHANCE) EVEN HIGHLIGHTS A NON ZERO CHANCE OF
SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. ACCORDING TO THE NWS PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK, THERE
IS A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD ENSURE ACCESS TO HYDRATION AND COOLING
WHILE LIMITING PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES AS
TRANSIENT LOBES OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECT BRISKLY ALONG IN A
COMBINED SOUTHERN AND POLAR JET-STREAM. TO OUR SOUTHWEST, AN
EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN WHILE SLIDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TODAY. IN BETWEEN THE ACTIVE
JET & TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH,
500MB FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL VEER FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TODAY TO A WESTERLY THAN SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN AMPLIFIED SUBTROPICAL TROUGH SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS
TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE
AMPLIFICATION & DEFINITION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT LONG-WAVE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, THE INFUSION OF
SYNOPTIC ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WILL AIDE AND KICK-OFF THE
PROPAGATION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A STOUT JET-STREAK AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INITIAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE VORTICITY
DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OFFSHORE OF NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
CLOSER TO THE REGION, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PRESENT IN THE HEART OF
THE WARM SECTOR, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF 2026 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THUS FAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE AMPLIFIED AS A LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE SURGE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND
INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. IT'S WORTH NOTING
THAT THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE WHICH PERFORMS WELL IN THESE TYPE OF
FLOW REGIMES HAS TRENDED HIGHER, WITH POTENTIAL VALUES IN THE UPPER
90S NOT OUT OF THE CARDS FOR WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE EAST COAST
METRO. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL ALSO SURGE HIGHER
DUE TO THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION, WITH A DURATION OF VALUES IN THE LOW 100S POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO THE NWS PROTOTYPE
PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK, THERE IS A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METRO ON
SATURDAY WHERE AS A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. UNSEASONABLE HEAT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR COULD AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION AS
WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
AFTER UNSEASONABLE AND NEAR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY, THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
FORECAST TO BE MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES AT OUR DOORSTEP. ZOOMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST VIA A
SYNOPTIC LENS, THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC IN TANDEM WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN FROM MODEL SUITE TO MODEL SUITE EVEN AT
THIS HOUR.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY (AS DISCUSSED IN VARIOUS
DISCUSSIONS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS) FALLS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. A QUICKER AND
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION
WOULD LIMIT ANY DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD
PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF MORE ROBUST STORMS OR THREAT OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. CONVERSELY, A SLOWER PROPAGATION AND ARRIVAL COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AND FOR MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND A
HIGHER CONCERN FOR AN LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING THREAT. QPF
CLUSTERS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS REMAINING IN THE 1-2" RANGE, WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FORECAST OVER THE EAST COAST METRO. SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND
BACK-BUILDING OCCURS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE GREAT FOR DIAGNOSING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP BUT
OFTEN HAVE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL LIMITATIONS ON THE METAPHYSICS OF
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. LUCKILY, WE ARE ALMOST AT THE WINDOW OF TIME
WHERE OUR MORE RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC (HRRR, RAP, ETC) AND
ENSEMBLE (HREF, REFS, ETC) MESOSCALE MODELS CAN HELP US BETTER
DIAGNOSE THE SETUP. THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WILL GIVE US BETTER INSIGHT INTO WHICH SOLUTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR. BE SURE TO STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AS THE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT REMAIN IN THE 30-40% RANGE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS (LOW 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION, UPPER 80S ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA). THE AXIS
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE REGION VEERS BACK TO A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD BRINGING A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
LIGHT WINDS AT DAYBREAK WILL VEER OUT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE WINDS VEER ONSHORE OUT OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST BY 17-19Z. VFR AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY PATCHY INLAND FOG ACROSS INLAND SW FLORIDA THIS
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AT DAYBREAK WILL
VEER TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND OUT
OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AN AFTERNOON WIND
SURGE COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A BRIEF DURATION OF SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS (SCEC) ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, RESULTING IN SCEC
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH
EVEN SOME POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF DURATION OF CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ZONES. SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN
AT 2 FEET OR LESS. THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND WAVES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN HIGHER
WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULFSTREAM WATERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
DUE TO A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A NOCTURNAL INVERSION PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF INLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA AT DAYBREAK WILL ERODE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS AS WINDS GRADUALLY ENHANCE OUT OF WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, ENHANCED
FIRE BEHAVIOR REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMBINATION OF
DRY FUELS (FIRE POTENTIAL FORECAST OF 4) AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES (MID 30S TO LOW 40S) NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IS FORECAST FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN. CLOSER TO THE COAST, ONSHORE WINDS WILL
MODERATE THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY PRECLUDING LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. WINDS WILL ENHANCE AND BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY ONCE AGAIN
FACILITATE ENHANCED FIRE BEHAVIOR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE
RETURN AND PRECIPITATION WILL ACT TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TODAY'S FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES:
MIAMI (KMIA): 89
FORT LAUDERDALE (KFLL): 88
WEST PALM BEACH(KPBI): 88
TODAY'S 90TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES: (1 IN 10 CHANCE)
MIAMI (KMIA): 92
FORT LAUDERDALE (KFLL): 91
WEST PALM BEACH (KPBI): 91
TODAY'S RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES:
MIAMI (KMIA): 92
FORT LAUDERDALE (KFLL): 92
WEST PALM BEACH (KPBI): 93
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 75 92 76 / 0 0 0 30
WEST KENDALL 92 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 30
OPA-LOCKA 91 74 94 75 / 0 0 0 30
HOMESTEAD 89 74 91 74 / 0 0 0 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 74 91 75 / 0 0 0 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 74 92 74 / 0 0 0 30
PEMBROKE PINES 92 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 30
WEST PALM BEACH 89 71 94 71 / 0 0 10 40
BOCA RATON 88 73 92 73 / 0 0 10 40
NAPLES 86 72 87 72 / 0 0 0 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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