630
FXUS62 KMFL 011952
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 349 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE ODDS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEATRISK ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO ON SATURDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
UNFORTUNATELY, THE (LACK OF) APRIL SHOWERS DID NOT BRING MAY
FLOWERS. INSTEAD, NEAR-RECORD SWELTERING HEAT IS UPON US AND WE
STILL REMAIN DRY, WITH MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA STILL UNDER EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS. IN FACT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE PENINSULA DUE TO THESE WARM, DRY, AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE REGION FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE 18Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A
LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 600 MB, WITH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ONCE AGAIN LOOKING TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREWN ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA,
WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. DIURNAL MIXING MAY
BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THIS STRONGER FLOW TO THE SURFACE,
CREATING BREEZIER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH
THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
WITH BREEZIER WINDS LOOKING TO START EARLIER IN THE MORNING, THE
THREAT OF DENSE FOG IS MUCH LOWER FOR TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KTS WOULD ALSO FACILITATE THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD SHOULD
ONE OCCUR. HOWEVER, THIS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A
LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, KEEPING CONDITIONS ABOVE
RED FLAG CRITERIA. ON THE OTHER HAND, THESE HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL RAISE HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
PINNED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, ALLOWING FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS TO HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO
CLIMB UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, NEAR RECORD FOR EARLY MAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDED UP ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH KMIA
NOW FORECAST TO TIE A RECORD HIGH OF 93 F, SET BACK IN 1937.
ACCORDING TO HREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES, THERE IS ABOUT A 40% TO
60% CHANCE FOR LARGE SWATHS OF THE METRO AREA TO REACH GREATER THAN
93 F, WHICH WOULD BREAK SEVERAL RECORDS ALL ALONG THE COAST FROM
MIAMI TO PALM BEACH. DESPITE HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE TRENDING HIGHER,
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES ACTUALLY DIPPED SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR SATURDAY DUE
TO DEWPOINTS DROPPING JUST A TAD. HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES WILL STILL
BE NEAR 100 F FOR THE DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH METROS; THE
HIGHEST THEY'VE BEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. AS A RESULT, THE NWS HEATRISK
TOOL SHOWS A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS. THE NWS PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK IS SHOWING A 75%
CHANCE OF PARTS OF METRO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD REACHING A MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. THIS MEANS THAT
ANYONE THAT DOES NOT TAKE PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION BREAKS DURING
PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE AT RISK OF HEAT EXHAUSTION OR
EVEN HEAT STROKE. INCREASED HOSPITALIZATIONS DUE TO HEAT-ILLNESS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED, AND HEALTH SYSTEMS OR RELATED INDUSTRIES MAY
BECOME STRESSED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
AFTER UNSEASONABLE AND NEAR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY, THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
FORECAST TO BE MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES AT OUR DOORSTEP. ZOOMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST VIA A
SYNOPTIC LENS, THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC IN TANDEM WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN FROM MODEL SUITE TO MODEL SUITE EVEN AT
THIS HOUR.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY (AS DISCUSSED IN VARIOUS
DISCUSSIONS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS) FALLS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. A QUICKER AND
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION
WOULD LIMIT ANY DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD
PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF MORE ROBUST STORMS OR THREAT OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. CONVERSELY, A SLOWER PROPAGATION AND ARRIVAL COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AND FOR MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND A
HIGHER CONCERN FOR AN LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING THREAT. QPF
CLUSTERS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS REMAINING IN THE 1-2" RANGE, WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FORECAST OVER THE EAST COAST METRO. SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND
BACK-BUILDING OCCURS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE GREAT FOR DIAGNOSING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP BUT
OFTEN HAVE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL LIMITATIONS ON THE METAPHYSICS OF
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. LUCKILY, WE ARE ALMOST AT THE WINDOW OF TIME
WHERE OUR MORE RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC (HRRR, RAP, ETC) AND
ENSEMBLE (HREF, REFS, ETC) MESOSCALE MODELS CAN HELP US BETTER
DIAGNOSE THE SETUP. THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WILL GIVE US BETTER INSIGHT INTO WHICH SOLUTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR. BE SURE TO STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AS THE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT REMAIN IN THE 30-40% RANGE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS (LOW 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION, UPPER 80S ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA). THE AXIS
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE REGION VEERS BACK TO A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD BRINGING A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS OVER MOST LOCATIONS ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF WILL KEEP A
PERSISTENT WESTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN EVERGLADES NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AREA WIDE
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AT DAYBREAK WILL
VEER TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND OUT
OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AN AFTERNOON WIND
SURGE COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A BRIEF DURATION OF SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS (SCEC) ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, RESULTING IN SCEC
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH
EVEN SOME POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF DURATION OF CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ZONES. SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN
AT 2 FEET OR LESS. THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND WAVES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN HIGHER
WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULFSTREAM WATERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
DUE TO A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A NOCTURNAL INVERSION PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF INLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA AT DAYBREAK WILL ERODE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS AS WINDS GRADUALLY ENHANCE OUT OF WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, ENHANCED
FIRE BEHAVIOR REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMBINATION OF
DRY FUELS (FIRE POTENTIAL FORECAST OF 4) AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES (MID 30S TO LOW 40S) NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IS FORECAST FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN. CLOSER TO THE COAST, ONSHORE WINDS WILL
MODERATE THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY PRECLUDING LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. WINDS WILL ENHANCE AND BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY ONCE AGAIN
FACILITATE ENHANCED FIRE BEHAVIOR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE
RETURN AND PRECIPITATION WILL ACT TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TODAY'S FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES:
MIAMI (KMIA): 89
FORT LAUDERDALE (KFLL): 88
WEST PALM BEACH(KPBI): 88
TODAY'S 90TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES: (1 IN 10 CHANCE)
MIAMI (KMIA): 92
FORT LAUDERDALE (KFLL): 91
WEST PALM BEACH (KPBI): 91
TODAY'S RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES:
MIAMI (KMIA): 92
FORT LAUDERDALE (KFLL): 92
WEST PALM BEACH (KPBI): 93
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 93 75 83 / 0 0 30 80
WEST KENDALL 71 94 72 86 / 0 0 30 80
OPA-LOCKA 74 93 75 84 / 0 0 30 90
HOMESTEAD 74 92 74 85 / 0 0 30 80
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 92 74 81 / 0 0 30 90
N FT LAUDERDALE 74 93 74 80 / 0 0 40 90
PEMBROKE PINES 75 95 76 85 / 0 0 30 90
WEST PALM BEACH 71 94 72 79 / 0 10 50 90
BOCA RATON 73 93 74 80 / 0 10 40 90
NAPLES 72 87 72 82 / 0 0 70 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...NMP
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