645
FXUS62 KMFL 030534
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CHANCES WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. PROLONGED
EXPOSURE OUTDOORS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING, HYDRATION, OR ATTIRE
COULD BE DANGEROUS. IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON ATTENDING AN OUTDOOR
EVENT TODAY, TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO REMAIN SAFE.
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS MAY BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO HEAT AS AGE
AND CERTAIN CONDITIONS IMPACT THE BODY'S ABILITY TO REGULATE
TEMPERATURE. WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT AND AMPLE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY SOAR IN ENCLOSED SPACES WITHOUT A/C. NEVER LEAVE PETS
OR CHILDREN IN PARKED CARS UNATTENDED, ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE YOU
LOCK!
SYNOPSIS:
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STOUT JET-
STREAK AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OFFSHORE OF
NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA. AS THIS SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY, A COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY, PRECEDED BY
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FURTHER SOUTH, WE WILL
REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE HEART OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WITH
THE FORECASTED DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL MIX DOWN
GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AMPLIFIED AS A LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE SURGE,
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A LACK OF CLOUD COVER
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILE WHICH PERFORMS WELL IN THESE TYPE OF FLOW REGIMES IS
STILL TRENDING HIGHER, WITH POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE
UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE CARDS FOR WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE EAST COAST
METRO.
INTERESTINGLY WHILE THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHER OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
FORECAST DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE TRENDED LOWER WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
LOWER AFTERNOON MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE ALSO INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOFLO. THAT BEING SAID, WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT VALUES (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW AND KEY MESSAGE DISCUSSION ABOVE) FORECAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE WITHOUT
HYDRATION, COOLING, OR PROPER ATTIRE COULD PROVE TO BE DANGEROUS.
AFTER A SCORCHER OF A DAY ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW OF THE 00Z AND
06Z MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF A DECAYING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. SOME OF THE CAMS
(CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS) DEPICT A BROKEN LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS STILL DEPICT AN INTACT LINE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVING ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER (HIGHER INSTABILITY
VALUES OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION
LONGER). IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ON APPROACH TO
THE REGION, THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS (EITHER
OUTFLOW INDUCED OR EMBEDDED IN ANY TALLER THUNDERSTORM THAT IS ABLE
TO MAINTAIN ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BOUNDARY).
DETERMINISTIC AND NOW MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY HOURS OF SUNDAY. THE EARLIER TIMING OF ARRIVAL WILL OCCUR
IN TANDEM WITH NOCTURNAL INHIBITION OVER LAND WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY ROBUST SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NIGHT WITH IT'S
PASSAGE. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH (AND WHAT WILL BE A COMMON THEME LATER
ON IN THIS AFD), EVEN THOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND CLOSE TO
THE DAILY MAX FOR THE DATE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON DEPICT A SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILE WITH A SKINNY CAPE
ORIENTATION. WHILE ANY DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE FAST
MOVING GIVEN BRISK FLOW ALOFT, THE SATURATED PROFILE SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IF AND WHERE CONVECTION IS ABLE
TO MATERIALIZE. ONCE AGAIN, CAMS REMAIN SPLIT WITH A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICTING HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY REMAINING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WHILE OTHERS SHOW MORE OF A SIGNAL OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
THE 00Z HREF LPMM (LOCALIZED PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN) SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL SEE 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE
THE OVERALL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW, THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POCKET OF UPPER 80S NEAR FLORIDA BAY
AND FLAMINGO. THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY ON
MONDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF SYNOPTIC ENERGY
IN TANDEM WITH THE CONTINUATION OF AN AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM JET-
STREAK (ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE) ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, RESIDUAL HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND CLOSE TO THE DAILY MAX) ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT THE
CONTINUATION OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULFSTREAM WATERS
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE LONG RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS NOW DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SURFACE SIGNAL TO THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IN THE FORM OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS THAT WILL
QUICKLY ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN A WRAPPING IN OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
REGION AND A PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN THE DAILY MEAN AND 75TH
PERCENTILE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCALES. MEAGER INSTABILITY AND THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IN
CHECK. THE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL ENHANCE BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
80S ACROSS COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EFFECTIVELY STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUESDAY, HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN WITH US EVEN ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE
ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED (MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES). AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITE STATES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE
SOUTHERN JET-STREAM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS 500MB FLOW
BEGINS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
A PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT IS IN THE CARDS BEGINNING LATE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STOUT AND ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. 500MB TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH THE
DAILY MAXIMUM FOR THE DATE (MAY 7TH) WITH VALUES POTENTIALLY ABOVE -
4C AT 500MB. LREF GEFS CLIMATOLOGY HAS 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
97-99TH PERCENTILE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF THIS
STRENGTH ALOFT WILL HAVE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS AND LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES.
IF YOU ARE A FAN OF THE HEAT (NO PUN INTENDED), IT'LL BE ANOTHER
SCORCHING PERIOD WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MESOSCALE
SEA-BREEZES WILL VEER WINDS ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING SOME RELIEF TO COASTAL LOCALES.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH TRANSITS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A COMBINED POLAR
AND SOUTHERN JET-STREAM AMPLIFIES IN INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN. 500MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO COOL AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE TO DRAG AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO OUR REGION AT THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AS THIS IS AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MORE
FORECAST CLARITY WILL COME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN AS WE
MOVE FORWARD IN TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT DAYBREAK WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY
THAN NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SHRA/TSRA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR OR SUB MVFR CIGS/VIS AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC VARIABLE WIND SHIFTS COULD ALSO OCCUR IF SHRA/TSRA
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. L/V WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET WITH
DECREASING SHRA/TSRA OVER LAND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 72 82 72 / 80 70 50 30
WEST KENDALL 86 69 85 68 / 80 70 40 30
OPA-LOCKA 84 71 84 72 / 80 70 50 30
HOMESTEAD 86 71 84 72 / 80 70 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 80 72 / 80 70 50 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 71 80 72 / 80 70 50 30
PEMBROKE PINES 85 72 85 73 / 80 70 50 30
WEST PALM BEACH 79 71 80 71 / 80 60 40 20
BOCA RATON 81 71 80 72 / 80 70 40 30
NAPLES 82 68 86 69 / 60 50 20 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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