524
FXUS62 KMFL 030614
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 212 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CHANCES WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
AMPLE SUNSHINE, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND RECORD SIZZLING
TEMPERATURES WERE EXPERIENCED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A VERY DIFFERENT DAY IS FORECAST TO PLAY OUT
WEATHER-WISE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. AMPLE CLOUD COVER, DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, AND LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS,
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PM ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PUT
A DAMPER (PUN INTENDED) ON OUTDOOR PLANS. LET'S GET INTO FORECAST
SPECIFICS FOR TODAY, BEGINNING WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.
06Z MESOANALYSIS COMBINED WITH ACARS DATA FROM SOFLO AIRPORTS DEPICT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION (CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION) NOW ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA PROPER
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ERODE. ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE
TIME BEING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS AND TO OUR SOUTH
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA REVEAL THE CONTINUED PROROGATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD AS A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT DROP IS
BEING OBSERVED. MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS BY
DAYBREAK WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH (AND
WHAT WILL BE A COMMON THEME LATER ON IN THIS AFD), EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY
DAYBREAK, FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE NEARING HISTORICAL DAILY MAXIMUM
VALUES FOR THE DATE AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT PROVIDING AN BOOST OF SYNOPTIC ENERGY IN TANDEM WITH
THE CONTINUATION OF AN AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM JET-STREAK
(ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE) OVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESIDE FIRMLY ON THE "COOL"
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, RESIDUAL INSTABILITY (CAPE OF 1000-
2000 J/KG) & HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND CLOSE TO THE DAILY MAX), LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
FIRING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREA (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WHICH WILL REMAIN CLOSER IN
SPATIAL EXTENT TO THE BOUNDARY) ONCE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ERODES. GIVEN THAT WE ARE INDEED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY,
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION GIVEN
THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. WHILE ANY DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE FAST MOVING
GIVEN BRISK FLOW ALOFT, THE SATURATED PROFILE SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IF AND WHERE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE.
MESOSCALE MODELS STILL REMAIN SPLIT ON HOW TODAY WILL
PLAY OUT WITH A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICTING HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SETTING UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WHILE OTHER
MODELS DEPICT ANY RAINFALL MAXIMA OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OVER
THE GULFSTREAM WATERS. WIDESPREAD MOST LIKELY (50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDANCE) RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1.5" ARE FORECAST FOR MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY WITH A REASONABLE WORST CASE (1 IN 10 CHANCE)
SOLUTION OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF 2-3+" INCHES OF RAINFALL.
GIVEN HOW SUSCEPTIBLE OUR EAST COAST METRO URBAN AREAS ARE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME, A LOW-END THREAT REMAINS
FOR ISOLATED LOCALIZED FLOODING TODAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON INCLUDE: FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -9C TO -10C RANGE
ALOFT, SMALL SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED IN THE TALLEST
CONVECTIVE CORES. CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE
LOW 80S (PERHAPS A SMATTERING OF UPPER 70S ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
SOFLO) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS RECENT 00Z
MESOSCALE MODELS STILL DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE SIGNAL TO
THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IN THE FORM OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF STREAM WATERS THAT WILL QUICKLY ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A WRAPPING IN OF DRIER AIR
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF REGION AND A PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY AS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
DAILY MEAN AND 75TH PERCENTILE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCALES. MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IN CHECK. THE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
ENHANCE BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS COASTAL PALM BEACH
COUNTY TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EFFECTIVELY BE STATIONARY TO
OUR SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUESDAY,
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN WITH US EVEN ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON TUESDAY WHERE ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED (MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES).
AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITE STATES WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERN JET-STREAM IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AS 500MB FLOW BEGINS TO VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF SURFACE
RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE
WILL VEER WINDS TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN STRENGTH. A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, NOW MORE ORIENTED FROM EAST TO
WEST AS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA.
A PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT IS IN THE CARDS BEGINNING LATE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STOUT AND ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. 500MB TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH THE
DAILY MAXIMUM FOR THE DATE WITH VALUES POTENTIALLY ABOVE
-4C TO -5C AT 500MB. LREF GEFS CLIMATOLOGY HAS 500MB TEMPERATURES
ALOFT OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF THIS STRENGTH ALOFT WILL HAVE A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH WILL SUPPRESS AND LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AFTERNOON BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. IF YOU ARE A FAN OF THE MIAMI HEAT (NO PUN INTENDED
THIS TIME), IT'LL BE ANOTHER SCORCHING PERIOD WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MESOSCALE SEA-BREEZES WILL VEER WINDS
ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING
SOME WELCOME RELIEF TO COASTAL LOCALES.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH TRANSITS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A
COMBINED POLAR AND SOUTHERN JET-STREAM AMPLIFIES IN INTENSITY ONCE
AGAIN. 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION AS SOUTH FLORIDA IS
FORECAST TO BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE TO DRAG AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS
TEMPORAL RANGE REMAIN SPLIT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW
DEPICT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT AND BECOMING FRONTOLYTIC IN
NATURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA, A PLUME OF THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
(FORECASTED 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES) ENVELOPE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH
LIGHT BACKGROUND WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, SOUTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THIS PERIOD, DIURNAL SEA-
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL KICK IN EACH AFTERNOON FOCUSING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE INLAND PROPAGATING BOUNDARIES AND
OUTFLOW COLLISIONS. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
CURRENTLY RESIDE IN MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS COASTAL LOCALES WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S INLAND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT DAYBREAK WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY
THAN NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SHRA/TSRA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR OR SUB MVFR CIGS/VIS AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC VARIABLE WIND SHIFTS COULD ALSO OCCUR IF SHRA/TSRA
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. L/V WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET WITH
DECREASING SHRA/TSRA OVER LAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY THAN NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY BEHIND THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATER ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AND WANES IN
THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. SEAS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5
FEET RANGE ON SUNDAY INCREASING TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON MONDAY AS WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT UP AGAINST
THE NORTHWARD MOVING GULFSTREAM CURRENT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2
TO 3 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS TODAY BEFORE LESSENING
TO THE 1 TO 2 FEET RANGE ON MONDAY. WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING
ELEVATED TODAY INTO TUESDAY, ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES. CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY COULD
RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE GULFSTREAM
BEFORE WINDS VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ON TUESDAY AND
WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LESSEN. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD OF THE WORK WEEK AS WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS VEER IN THE DIRECTION OF THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 72 82 72 / 80 70 50 30
WEST KENDALL 86 69 85 68 / 80 70 40 30
OPA-LOCKA 84 71 84 72 / 80 70 50 30
HOMESTEAD 86 71 84 72 / 80 70 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 80 72 / 80 70 50 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 71 80 72 / 80 70 50 30
PEMBROKE PINES 85 72 85 73 / 80 70 50 30
WEST PALM BEACH 79 71 80 71 / 80 60 40 20
BOCA RATON 81 71 80 72 / 80 70 40 30
NAPLES 82 68 86 69 / 60 50 20 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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