152
FXUS62 KMFL 040644
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE PALM BEACH COAST TODAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK. PROBABILITIES OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS
URBAN AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
06Z MESOANALYSIS NOW SHOWS THE AXIS OF A AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE NOW
PUSHING OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS SYNOPTIC INJECTION OF ENERGY ALOFT HAS ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER OUR REGION WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE ONSET OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WHERE SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH. LIGHT EAST-
NORTH EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
COASTLINE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN WEAK COASTAL CONVERGENCE AS SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT RIGHT
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO OCCURRING
OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS NOW DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM JUST NORTH OF CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN STREAM JET-STREAK HAS RESULTED IN A MAXIMA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK AREA OF NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
DIRECTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
IN TANDEM. CYCLONIC SURFACE WIND FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE WRAPPING IN OF DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF REGION AND A PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THIS
TREND OF LESSENING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT, FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE
DAILY MEAN AND 90TH PERCENTILE FOR TODAY'S DATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) CONTINUE
TO DEPICT VARYING LEVELS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FORECAST WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS COULD SERVE
AS A LIMITING FACTOR THAT COULD KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SPATIALLY IN CHECK. IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DO OCCUR, DIURNAL
HEATING COULD SPUR GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE. REGARDLESS, MEAGER OVERALL INSTABILITY AND THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IN
CHECK. THE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL ENHANCE BREEZY TO GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS COASTAL PALM BEACH
COUNTY TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STILL BE EFFECTIVELY
STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUESDAY,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE DAILY MEAN WILL REMAIN WITH US TO
THE NORTH OF THE INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY WHERE ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED (MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES). AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE NEXT
LOBE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERN JET-STREAM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AS 500MB FLOW BEGINS TO VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS LIFTS FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL VEER WINDS TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY LESSEN IN STRENGTH. A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, NOW
MORE ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST AS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
A PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE CULPRIT? THE ARRIVAL OF A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
500MB MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF BEGINNING LATE ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 500MB
TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH THE DAILY MAXIMUM (WARMEST) VALUES
DURING THIS STRETCH WITH VALUES POTENTIALLY ABOVE
-4C TO -5C AT 500MB. LREF GEFS CLIMATOLOGY HAS 500MB TEMPERATURES
ALOFT OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE AND AT TIMES NEAR
THE DAILY MAX VALUE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A RIDGE
OF THIS STRENGTH ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE
SURFACE, WHICH WILL HINDER AND SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF LOW-
CAPPED CUMULUS AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WHERE ASCENT
IS MAXIMIZED. 500MB FLOW WILL REMAIN ANTICYCLONIC IN NATURE AROUND
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, AN ENVELOPE
OF DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL MIX MORE DRY AIR DOWN THE SURFACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS REINFORCING THE DRY PERIOD.
KINEMATICS OUT OF THE WAY, LET'S HONE MORE IN ON FORECAST DETAILS.
THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCEAN COOLED COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL MAX OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE
WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURE AND AMBIENT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
LOWER IN SEPARATION COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD SUMMER HEAT, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
NWS'S PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK DEPICTS A MEDIUM (50%) TO
HIGH (70%) PROBABILITY OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY EXPANDING INTO THE NAPLES METRO LATER IN THE
WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THESE PROBABILISTIC VALUES MAY FLUCTUATE AS WE
REMAIN SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME, MAJOR HEATRISK CAN BE IMPACTFUL TO
ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEM
AND INDUSTRIES. BE SURE TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE TO DRAG AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT
AND BECOMING FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT. IT APPEARS THE STUNTED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE CAUSED BY THE FACT THAT THE ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW DEPICTING A GRADUAL
DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE THE BOUNDARY MAY NOT MAKE IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA, A PLUME OF THE
DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ENVELOPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY
COULD ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH LIGHT BACKGROUND WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, SOUTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS PERIOD, DIURNAL
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS COULD KICK IN EACH AFTERNOON FOCUSING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE INLAND PROPAGATING BOUNDARIES AND
OUTFLOW COLLISIONS. LATEST FORECAST HAS DAILY PM RAIN CHANCES IN THE
20-40% RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND CURRENTLY RESIDE IN MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS COASTAL
LOCALES WITH WIDESPREAD 90S INLAND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT EAST COAST TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING. NERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE VEERING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND LESSENING AFTER
SUNSET. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN REDUCED VIS/CIG IF DIRECTLY
IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE ACROSS THE REGION AT DAYBREAK,
BECOMING BREEZY TO GUSTY ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT BRIEFLY ENHANCES. 00Z HREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS A HIGH (70-90%)
PROBABILITY OF REACHING 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH ECMWF
GUIDANCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 8AM THIS MORNING TO 5PM THIS AFTERNOON. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REACH THE 4-6 FEET RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
BEFORE LESSENING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 1-2 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS BEFORE DECREASING
FURTHER IN HEIGHT ON TUESDAY AS WINDS ACROSS THE REGION VEER
EASTERLY AND LESSEN IN STRENGTH.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND THE RETURN OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT PALM BEACH BEACHES THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-
DADE BEACHES AS WELL TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY
LINGER AT PALM BEACH BEACHES ON TUESDAY BEFORE LESSENING
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AND SURFACE WINDS REDUCE THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 73 85 73 / 60 30 40 10
WEST KENDALL 85 70 87 70 / 60 30 40 10
OPA-LOCKA 84 73 86 74 / 60 30 40 10
HOMESTEAD 85 73 86 73 / 50 30 40 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 72 82 73 / 60 40 40 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 72 82 73 / 60 30 40 10
PEMBROKE PINES 85 73 87 75 / 60 30 40 10
WEST PALM BEACH 79 71 82 72 / 50 30 40 10
BOCA RATON 80 72 82 73 / 60 30 40 10
NAPLES 85 70 87 71 / 30 20 20 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page