094
FXUS62 KMFL 041739
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE PALM BEACH COAST TODAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK. PROBABILITIES OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS
URBAN AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE
SHORT TERM. A STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING MESO-LOW
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST. TRAILING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOFLO, WITH ACTIVE
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE EAST COASTLINE FROM JUPITER
THROUGH KEY BISCAYNE. MEANWHILE, A LONG RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA, WITH A
SHARP CONTRAST IN MOISTURE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE.
AS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER
THE CWA WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT IF SOME BREAKS OCCUR THAT ALLOWS FOR
SUNSHINE/DAYTIME HEATING TO FURTHER WARM UP THE SFC, A FEW STRONG
CELLS COULD DEVELOP AND BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. IN GENERAL, THE POOR
INSTABILITY PROFILE SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION TODAY, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT HAVING AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO BEFORE THE DAY IS
DONE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZY/GUSTY PERIODS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER
TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A MID-LVL RIDGE ALSO INTRUDES ALOFT FROM THE
GULF REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRIER DAY ON TUESDAY MAX POPS
DROPPING TO THE LOW TEENS, ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVER MUCH
OF INTERIOR SOFLO.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS, WHILE THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 70S. FOR TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 80S FOR EAST COAST LOCATIONS, WHILE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD HIT THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
A PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE CULPRIT? THE ARRIVAL OF A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
500MB MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF BEGINNING LATE ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 500MB
TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH THE DAILY MAXIMUM (WARMEST) VALUES
DURING THIS STRETCH WITH VALUES POTENTIALLY ABOVE
-4C TO -5C AT 500MB. LREF GEFS CLIMATOLOGY HAS 500MB TEMPERATURES
ALOFT OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE AND AT TIMES NEAR
THE DAILY MAX VALUE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A RIDGE
OF THIS STRENGTH ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE
SURFACE, WHICH WILL HINDER AND SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF LOW-
CAPPED CUMULUS AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WHERE ASCENT
IS MAXIMIZED. 500MB FLOW WILL REMAIN ANTICYCLONIC IN NATURE AROUND
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, AN ENVELOPE
OF DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL MIX MORE DRY AIR DOWN THE SURFACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS REINFORCING THE DRY PERIOD.
KINEMATICS OUT OF THE WAY, LET'S HONE MORE IN ON FORECAST DETAILS.
THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCEAN COOLED COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL MAX OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE
WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURE AND AMBIENT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
LOWER IN SEPARATION COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD SUMMER HEAT, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
NWS'S PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK DEPICTS A MEDIUM (50%) TO
HIGH (70%) PROBABILITY OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY EXPANDING INTO THE NAPLES METRO LATER IN THE
WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THESE PROBABILISTIC VALUES MAY FLUCTUATE AS WE
REMAIN SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME, MAJOR HEATRISK CAN BE IMPACTFUL TO
ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEM
AND INDUSTRIES. BE SURE TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE TO DRAG AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT
AND BECOMING FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT. IT APPEARS THE STUNTED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE CAUSED BY THE FACT THAT THE ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW DEPICTING A GRADUAL
DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE THE BOUNDARY MAY NOT MAKE IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA, A PLUME OF THE
DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ENVELOPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY
COULD ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH LIGHT BACKGROUND WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, SOUTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS PERIOD, DIURNAL
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS COULD KICK IN EACH AFTERNOON FOCUSING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE INLAND PROPAGATING BOUNDARIES AND
OUTFLOW COLLISIONS. LATEST FORECAST HAS DAILY PM RAIN CHANCES IN THE
20-40% RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND CURRENTLY RESIDE IN MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS COASTAL
LOCALES WITH WIDESPREAD 90S INLAND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
VCTS CONTINUE FOR THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 00Z WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND
BREAK APART THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZE NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 02-03Z, THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE ACROSS THE REGION AT DAYBREAK,
BECOMING BREEZY TO GUSTY ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT BRIEFLY ENHANCES. 00Z HREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS A HIGH (70-90%)
PROBABILITY OF REACHING 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH ECMWF
GUIDANCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 8AM THIS MORNING TO 5PM THIS AFTERNOON. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REACH THE 4-6 FEET RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
BEFORE LESSENING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 1-2 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS BEFORE DECREASING
FURTHER IN HEIGHT ON TUESDAY AS WINDS ACROSS THE REGION VEER
EASTERLY AND LESSEN IN STRENGTH.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND THE RETURN OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT PALM BEACH BEACHES THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-
DADE BEACHES AS WELL TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY
LINGER AT PALM BEACH BEACHES ON TUESDAY BEFORE LESSENING
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AND SURFACE WINDS REDUCE THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 73 85 73 88 / 30 40 10 10
WEST KENDALL 70 87 70 90 / 30 40 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 73 86 74 90 / 30 40 10 10
HOMESTEAD 73 86 73 88 / 30 40 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 82 73 86 / 40 40 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 82 73 86 / 30 40 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 73 87 75 91 / 30 40 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 71 82 72 87 / 30 40 10 0
BOCA RATON 72 82 73 86 / 30 40 10 0
NAPLES 70 87 71 88 / 20 20 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...17
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