185
FXUS62 KMFL 051141
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
741 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 734 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS TODAY FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE BEACHES.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK. PROBABILITIES OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS
URBAN AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CONTINUATION FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE BOUNDARY FIZZLES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WHILE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY, A
FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
AROUND THE EAST COAST.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DISSIPATED WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY AND QUIET
PREVAILING WEATHER. WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING, SEA BREEZES
SHOULD DOMINATE LOCAL SURFACE WIND FLOW, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF MOISTURE
AND INCOMING 500MB RIDGING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) SHOULD PREVENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUFFICIENTLY DISSIPATED,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A 500MB RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER
WARMING TREND. 500MB TEMPERATURES COULD WARM TO NEAR DAILY RECORDS
BETWEEN -4 TO -5 C. A RIDGE OF THIS STRENGTH ALOFT WILL ALSO
RESULT IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL HINDER AND
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF LOW-CAPPED CUMULUS AFTERNOON
CLOUD COVER AND A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES
ALONG AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WHERE ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 90S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN COOLED COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL
MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR
TO THE SURFACE WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURE AND AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES LOWER IN SEPARATION COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD
SUMMER HEAT, APPARENT TEMPERATURES VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S ARE STILL POSSIBLE. NWS PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK
DEPICTS A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND INCREASING TO 70-80% ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THESE PROBABILISTIC VALUES MAY FLUCTUATE
AS WE REMAIN SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME, MAJOR HEATRISK CAN BE
IMPACTFUL TO ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS
HEALTH SYSTEM AND INDUSTRIES. BE SURE TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DRAGS
ITS ATTENDANT BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT COULD STILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A PLUME
OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME,
POPS REMAIN AROUND 20-30% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOLDING STEADY FOR
NOW AS IT'S A BIT TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN TOO MANY DETAILS, AS IT
WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE GULF STREAM HAVE BEEN WANING THOUGH THE MORNING,
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL DOMINATE THE WIND REGIME THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ABOUT A 10 KT
WESTERLY WIND FOR KAPF AND ABOUT A 10 KT EASTERLY BREEZE FOR THE
EASTERN SITES. CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF, BUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
GENERALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
RELAX AND WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASE. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-12 KTS
PREVAILS ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING
BETWEEN 3-5 FEET. ACROSS LOCAL GULF WATERS, WINDS SHOULD FLIP FROM
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES
WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE BEACHES. THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 86 74 88 74 / 20 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 88 69 91 70 / 20 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 88 74 90 74 / 20 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 87 73 88 74 / 10 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 86 74 / 20 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 74 86 74 / 20 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 88 74 91 75 / 20 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 83 72 87 72 / 30 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 83 74 86 74 / 20 10 0 0
NAPLES 87 71 88 72 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...NMP
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