102
FXUS62 KMFL 052250
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
650 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 603 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS TODAY FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE BEACHES.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK. PROBABILITIES OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS
URBAN AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MODELS AND SFC ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEST ATLANTIC, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS A
LITTLE TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING TROUGH/FRONT SYSTEM OVER THE
MIDWEST STATES, KEEPING SOFLO UNDER A GENERALLY ENE MODERATE FLOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE, A DECAYING STATIONARY BOUNDARY
LINGERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS, WITH A SWATH OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
STILL DRAPED OVER THE AREA, ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. THEREFORE, POPS CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW-END COVERAGE
(AROUND 20%) FOR MOST ATLANTIC METRO AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WITH
LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S OVER EAST AND INTERIOR AREAS, AND AROUND 90
FOR THE WEST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE DECAYING BOUNDARY OVER THE KEYS IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.
BOTH GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE FAMILIES BRING POPS TO NEAR ZERO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOFLO.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUFFICIENTLY DISSIPATED,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A 500MB RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER
WARMING TREND. 500MB TEMPERATURES COULD WARM TO NEAR DAILY RECORDS
BETWEEN -4 TO -5 C. A RIDGE OF THIS STRENGTH ALOFT WILL ALSO
RESULT IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL HINDER AND
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF LOW-CAPPED CUMULUS AFTERNOON
CLOUD COVER AND A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES
ALONG AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WHERE ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 90S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN COOLED COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL
MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR
TO THE SURFACE WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURE AND AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES LOWER IN SEPARATION COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD
SUMMER HEAT, APPARENT TEMPERATURES VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S ARE STILL POSSIBLE. NWS PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK
DEPICTS A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND INCREASING TO 70-80% ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THESE PROBABILISTIC VALUES MAY FLUCTUATE
AS WE REMAIN SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME, MAJOR HEATRISK CAN BE
IMPACTFUL TO ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS
HEALTH SYSTEM AND INDUSTRIES. BE SURE TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DRAGS
ITS ATTENDANT BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT COULD STILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A PLUME
OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME,
POPS REMAIN AROUND 20-30% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOLDING STEADY FOR
NOW AS IT'S A BIT TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN TOO MANY DETAILS, AS IT
WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GENERALLY ENE WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BECOME L/V FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT SE AFTER 15Z, WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AT
APF IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
GENERALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
RELAX AND WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASE. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-12 KTS
PREVAILS ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING
BETWEEN 3-5 FEET. ACROSS LOCAL GULF WATERS, WINDS SHOULD FLIP FROM
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES
WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE BEACHES. THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 89 74 91 / 10 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 70 90 71 92 / 10 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 73 90 74 92 / 10 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 73 88 74 91 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 86 74 89 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 73 86 74 89 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 74 91 75 94 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 72 87 72 91 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 73 86 74 89 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 71 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page