898
FXUS62 KMFL 060514
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
114 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABILITIES OF HEAT- RELATED IMPACTS
ACROSS URBAN AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL SE
FLORIDA BEACHES.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING, BENIGN AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEA BREEZES
SHOULD DOMINATE THE LOCAL SURFACE WIND FLOW WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EAST COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND KICK OFF THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WARMING TREND.
HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTS
TO THE LOW (MAYBE EVEN MID) 90S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED 500MB RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO
OPEN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE
FELT ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN
COOLED COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WHILE THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURE AND AMBIENT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES LOWER IN
SEPARATION COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD SUMMER HEAT, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. NWS PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK DEPICTS A 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AND INCREASING TO 70-80% ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH SOME POCKETS OF EXTREME HEATRISK ALONG THE EAST COAST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHILE THESE PROBABILISTIC VALUES MAY
FLUCTUATE AS WE REMAIN SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME, MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK CAN BE IMPACTFUL TO ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING/HYDRATION. BE SURE TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK
AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DRAGS ITS ATTENDANT BOUNDARY TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT COULD STILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, POPS REMAIN AROUND
20-30% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 40-50% ON
MONDAY ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH. HOLDING STEADY FOR
NOW AS IT'S A BIT TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN TOO MANY DETAILS, AS IT
WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS EAST COAST SITES TODAY WITH GULF BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY FOR APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILING ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ACROSS LOCAL GULF WATERS,
WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT FLIP TO A
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN
1-3 FEET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 91 75 91 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 74 92 75 91 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 74 91 74 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 89 75 89 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 74 89 74 90 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 75 94 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 72 91 73 90 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 74 89 74 89 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 72 89 73 89 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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