230
FXUS62 KMFL 062301
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
701 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 701 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABILITIES OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
ACROSS URBAN AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC, WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS NOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING AN OVERALL DRY
PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CONSISTENT WITH
THIS, THE 18Z MFL UPPER-AIR SOUNDING DEPICTS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A TEMPERATURE INVERSION NEAR 750 MB,
EFFECTIVELY LIMITING VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE ONGOING
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO STEADILY CLIMB TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. THE NWS PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK SUGGESTS AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4), PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO ON SATURDAY, WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 70-
90% RANGE. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS,
INCLUDING ENSURING ADEQUATE ACCESS TO COOLING AND HYDRATION, AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW (THURSDAY) SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA, AND EVEN THE MID-90S AROUND THE LAKE
REGION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED 500MB RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO
OPEN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE
FELT ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN
COOLED COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WHILE THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURE AND AMBIENT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES LOWER IN
SEPARATION COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD SUMMER HEAT, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. NWS PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK DEPICTS A 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AND INCREASING TO 70-80% ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH SOME POCKETS OF EXTREME HEATRISK ALONG THE EAST COAST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHILE THESE PROBABILISTIC VALUES MAY
FLUCTUATE AS WE REMAIN SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME, MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK CAN BE IMPACTFUL TO ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING/HYDRATION. BE SURE TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK
AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DRAGS ITS ATTENDANT BOUNDARY TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT COULD STILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, POPS REMAIN AROUND
20-30% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 40-50% ON
MONDAY ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH. HOLDING STEADY FOR
NOW AS IT'S A BIT TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN TOO MANY DETAILS, AS IT
WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT E/SE FLOW OVERNIGHT, THEN
GENERALLY S AROUND 8KTS AFTER 15Z, EXCEPT FOR A WESTERLY AFTERNOON
GULF BREEZE AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILING ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ACROSS LOCAL GULF WATERS,
WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT FLIP TO A
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN
1-3 FEET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 71 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 74 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 89 74 89 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 73 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 75 94 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 72 91 73 91 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 74 90 74 89 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 73 89 73 90 / 10 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...DPB
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