636
FXUS62 KMFL 071120
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
720 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 717 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABILITIES OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
ACROSS URBAN AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING, BENIGN AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEA BREEZES
SHOULD DOMINATE THE LOCAL SURFACE WIND FLOW WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EAST COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLE HEAT.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS EVEN LOW
90S ALONG THE COAST, AND LOW TO MID 90S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. NWS
HEATRISK REMAINS MINOR ALONG THE COASTS AND MODERATE FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TODAY. ON FRIDAY, MODERATE HEAT RISK EXPANDS TO ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE OF THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS REACHING THE MID
70S. FRIDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DIP MUCH LOWER
THAN THE UPPER 70S, AND MAY NOT EVEN DIP BELOW 80 OVERNIGHT -
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSEST TO THE WATER. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT UNCOMMON FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IN GENERAL, THEY ARE QUITE
UNUSUAL THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR, AND WITH LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVERNIGHT, THIS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
INCREASE IN HEATRISK TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POISED TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. TIMING FOR THIS FEATURE HAS SLOWED
SIGNIFICANTLY, AND GIVEN THE LAST FEW FORECAST MODEL RUNS, IT'S
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY, SUNNY
AND HOT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WHERE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE, HOWEVER WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEARLY
OVERHEAD, THESE SHOULD BE LOW-TOPPED AND RATHER WEAK. THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT RISK PEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER 90S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. NWS
PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK DEPICTS A 70-80% PROBABILITY OF
MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A 10-15% CHANCE OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4/4) HEATRISK. WHILE THESE
PROBABILISTIC VALUES MAY FLUCTUATE AS WE REMAIN SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN
TIME, MAJOR AND EXTREME HEATRISK CAN BE IMPACTFUL TO ANYONE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEM AND INDUSTRIES.
VERY LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STRUGGLE TO DIP BELOW 80 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
HEAT IMPACTS ASIDE, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND A FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL SEND ITS
ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, AND IF THE BOUNDARY IS
ABLE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA (WHICH SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
CURRENTLY) NORTHEAST FLOW ON TUESDAY WHICH HYPOTHETICALLY COULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 30-
50% EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT
BUT AM HOLDING STEADY WITH THIS UPDATE FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFT COULD MATERIALIZE FOR SOME OF THE
MORE SOUTHERLY SITES LATE THIS EVENING, AND KAPF COULD SEE A GULF
BREEZE DEVELOP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE COMING DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS LOCAL GULF WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN 1-3 FEET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 74 92 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 94 70 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 93 74 93 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 91 73 91 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 75 89 79 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 90 74 90 78 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 95 75 94 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 92 74 91 77 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 90 74 90 79 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 89 73 90 75 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATV
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