115
FXUS62 KMFL 250844
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
444 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
- MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW FLORIDA
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S ACROSS
MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL REMAIN UNDER A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
- THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
FOR THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY SYNOPTIC SCENARIO, OVERALL PICTURE
REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ATLANTIC, AND EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. ALOFT, A MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE REGION, HELPING IN
LIMITING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR DEEPER CONVECTION.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY PUSHING SE, BUT STILL
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF SOFLO AND KEEPING A GENERALLY ESE FLOW OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WIND REGIME WILL FAVOR THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE, WHICH WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND AND INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EACH AFTERNOON. THE WEAKER AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE
SHOULD REMAIN PINNED DOWN AGAINST THE WEST COAST. AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS OF SOFLO. LATEST NBM/ENSEMBLE TRENDS
KEEP BRINGING POPS/WX COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE SHORT TERM, SEEMINGLY
GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE OVERALL DOMINANCE OF THE RIDGES AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, NBM KEEPS THE
ATLANTIC METRO AREAS UNDER SINGLE DIGIT POPS, AND DOWN TO 15-20%
FOR THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST. SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUESDAY
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS, 15-20% FOR THE EAST COAST AND
20-40% INTERIOR AND WEST COAST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FAVORING INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND UP INTO THE MID 90S OVER WEST
COAST AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE EAST COAST, AND UP INTO THE MID 100S OVER SOUTHWEST
FL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS AN ACTIVE, UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING
WEAKEN AND PUSHED FURTHER EAST BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE, THE SFC
RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS AND MIGRATES FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE
STATE, RESULTING IN FLOW VEERING S/SW AND TRIGGERING A MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
TAP INTO THE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND THE SE GULF WATERS, WITH MODEL PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON
THURSDAY.
MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THURSDAY, WHICH
ALONG WITH ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
POPS APPROACHING THE 75-80% RANGE AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SOFLO. THEN FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME ONE OF THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE LONG
TERM.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S, THEN A MODEST RELIEF IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER HELP IN KEEPING HIGHS DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WHILE APF MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. ESE WINDS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KTS RANGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MODERATE TO BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PERIODS OF AFTERNOON
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON AS A
GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 88 78 89 78 / 10 20 10 30
WEST KENDALL 90 76 90 77 / 0 20 10 30
OPA-LOCKA 90 78 91 78 / 10 20 10 30
HOMESTEAD 89 79 90 79 / 10 20 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 79 88 80 / 10 20 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 87 79 88 79 / 10 20 20 40
PEMBROKE PINES 91 79 91 79 / 10 20 10 40
WEST PALM BEACH 88 80 88 80 / 10 30 20 30
BOCA RATON 87 80 88 80 / 10 30 20 40
NAPLES 92 77 92 77 / 10 10 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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