871
FXUS62 KMFL 260618
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 215 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S ACROSS
MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
A DRIER AIR MASS HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION AND THIS IS CAPTURED
WELL ON THE 18Z KMFL SOUNDING AS PWAT VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 1.31
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR IS HELPING TO INHIBIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THAT IS SUPPORTING SOME
ISOLATED FAST MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. GUSTY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE, WHICH IS KEEPING THE
GULF BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT. THE GULF BREEZE WILL
TRY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE STRONG
SYNOPTIC EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT GET
MUCH FURTHER THAN THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.
THE GULF BREEZE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE SHALLOW AND SHORT LIVED. ANY
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSH AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE MANY
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO AROUND
80 ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
FOR THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY SYNOPTIC SCENARIO, OVERALL PICTURE
REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ATLANTIC, AND EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. ALOFT, A MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE REGION, HELPING IN
LIMITING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR DEEPER CONVECTION.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY PUSHING SE, BUT STILL
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF SOFLO AND KEEPING A GENERALLY ESE FLOW OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WIND REGIME WILL FAVOR THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE, WHICH WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND AND INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EACH AFTERNOON. THE WEAKER AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE
SHOULD REMAIN PINNED DOWN AGAINST THE WEST COAST. AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS OF SOFLO. LATEST NBM/ENSEMBLE TRENDS
KEEP BRINGING POPS/WX COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE SHORT TERM, SEEMINGLY
GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE OVERALL DOMINANCE OF THE RIDGES AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, NBM KEEPS THE
ATLANTIC METRO AREAS UNDER SINGLE DIGIT POPS, AND DOWN TO 15-20%
FOR THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST. SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUESDAY
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS, 15-20% FOR THE EAST COAST AND
20-40% INTERIOR AND WEST COAST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FAVORING INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND UP INTO THE MID 90S OVER WEST
COAST AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE EAST COAST, AND UP INTO THE MID 100S OVER SOUTHWEST
FL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS AN ACTIVE, UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING
WEAKEN AND PUSHED FURTHER EAST BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE, THE SFC
RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS AND MIGRATES FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE
STATE, RESULTING IN FLOW VEERING S/SW AND TRIGGERING A MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
TAP INTO THE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND THE SE GULF WATERS, WITH MODEL PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON
THURSDAY.
MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THURSDAY, WHICH
ALONG WITH ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
POPS APPROACHING THE 75-80% RANGE AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SOFLO. THEN FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME ONE OF THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE LONG
TERM.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S, THEN A MODEST RELIEF IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER HELP IN KEEPING HIGHS DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT WITH SOME POSSIBLE PASSING SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE ESE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER
15Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MODERATE TO BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PERIODS OF AFTERNOON
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON AS A
GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 78 88 77 / 20 40 50 50
WEST KENDALL 90 76 90 75 / 20 30 50 50
OPA-LOCKA 90 77 90 77 / 20 40 50 50
HOMESTEAD 89 78 89 77 / 20 40 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 87 78 / 20 50 50 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 87 78 87 77 / 20 40 50 50
PEMBROKE PINES 91 79 91 78 / 20 40 50 50
WEST PALM BEACH 88 79 88 78 / 10 30 40 50
BOCA RATON 88 80 87 79 / 20 40 50 50
NAPLES 91 77 91 76 / 30 20 60 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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