472
FXUS62 KMFL 280601
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
201 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 157 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
- HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S ACROSS
MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL
ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, STARTING
TOMORROW, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT, WITH THE UNSETTLED/WETTER SCENARIO EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR EVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT THE PREVAILING
RIDGING OVER THE AREA FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, BUT STILL KEEPING A
GENERALLY SE FLOW OVER SOFLO FOR ONE MORE DAY. 00Z MFL SOUNDING
SHOWS LINGERING DRIER AIR ABOVE 2KM, BUT PWATS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASING (~1.7"). BY THE END OF THE DAY, BOTH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
AND THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BE DISPLACED BY DEVELOPING
TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. IN RESPONSE, WINDS
ACROSS SOFLO WILL BEGIN VEERING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH
TRIGGERS THE ONSET OF AN EXTENDED MOISTURE ADVECTION SCENARIO. THE
SOUTHERLY, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WILL TAP INTO THE POOL
OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE SE GULF WATERS AND
BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. NBM KEEPS A GRADIENT OF THIS AFTERNOON
POPS/WX COVERAGE OVER SOFLO WITH 50-70% FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA, AND 15-30% FOR THE EASTERN HALF. THE EROSION OF
THE RIDGE ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE SUPPORT, RESULTING
IN A FEW STRONG CELLS. BUT OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS
REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL, INCLUDING 500MB TEMPS AROUND -5C AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES, LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
BY THURSDAY, LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS INTENSIFY THE SOUTH-TO-NORTH
INFLUX OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE, WITH LATEST GFS TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER NORMALIZED ANOMALY STILL SHOWING MOISTURE CONTENT
OF AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS, AND MODEL
PWATS OVER 2". POPS JUMP INTO THE 70-80% RANGE FOR MUCH OF SOFLO BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WPC NOW SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING ON THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. GIVEN
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAVING MULTIPLE DAYS OF FLOODING CONCERNS, A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT ON UPCOMING GUIDANCE IN CASE A FLOOD WATCH BECOMES
NECESSARY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY SHOULD CONTINUE HIT THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND UP INTO THE MID 90S OVER WEST COAST
AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS
THE EAST COAST, AND UP INTO THE MID 100S OVER SOUTHWEST FL DESPITE
THE ONSET OF THE RAINY PATTERN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE LONG TERM SCENARIO LOOKS VERY WET AS MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DOMINANT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BRING THE LARGE SWATH OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS
STREAMING ACROSS SOFLO SOUTH-TO-NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND
LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE MOST
ACTIVE RAIN PERIODS WILL FOLLOW THE DAILY CYCLE, WITH HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING HOURS WHEN SEA BREEZES PUSH
INLAND. FRIDAY AFTERNOON POPS REMAIN IN THE IN THE 70-80% RANGE,
BUT LATEST WPC OUTLOOK REMOVED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SLOWER-MOVING CELLS,
TRAINING, AND/OR BOUNDARY COLLISIONS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THEREFORE,
FLOODING REMAINS AS THE MAIN HAZARD TO BE ON THE ALERT DURING THE
LONG TERM.
OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS
(INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS) AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. ONE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS SHOWN ON GUIDANCE MOVING
CLOSER TO THE AREA BY SATURDAY, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE CELLS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IN GENERAL, EXPECT A VERY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, INCLUDING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN A MODEST RELIEF IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP IN KEEPING
HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING A TERMINAL FROM FLL NORTHWARD. GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORT WINDOW OF VCTS IS INCLUDED AT APF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STORM THREAT SHIFTS EASTWARD AS FLOW
SHIFTS WESTERLY. STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD REACH THE EAST
COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND ARE
REFLECTED WITH TEMPOS FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS. LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
BREEZY PERIODS CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, A MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 87 75 89 76 / 40 50 80 40
WEST KENDALL 89 73 90 74 / 50 50 70 30
OPA-LOCKA 89 75 90 76 / 50 50 80 40
HOMESTEAD 88 75 89 76 / 50 50 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 76 88 77 / 50 60 70 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 86 75 88 76 / 50 60 70 40
PEMBROKE PINES 90 76 92 77 / 50 50 80 40
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 76 / 60 50 70 50
BOCA RATON 87 76 89 77 / 50 50 70 50
NAPLES 88 77 89 78 / 50 30 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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