424
FXUS62 KMFL 282245
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
645 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
- ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
- HEAT STRESS INDICES WILL GENERALLY BE A LEVEL 2 OF 4 THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT ILLNESS DURING PROLONGED
EXPOSURE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
ALTHOUGH MEAGER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE UP ON ORPHAN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AT THIS HOUR, CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ANVIL DEBRIS
FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PREVENTED ANY REAL RESURGENCE
OF AN AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS PM. WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
AND A HALF IN TANDEM WITH A POOR KINEMATIC PROFILE, CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER, WITH SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION, NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
STILL BE IN PLAY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST, A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST, AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. BETWEEN THE WEST COAST LOW
AND THE RIDGE IS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, THERE'S AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST, A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND A GENERALLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TO SPREAD FURTHER
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH
IT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
STRETCH AND FRACTURE INTO MULTIPLE SECTIONS MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, EAST THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH, AND ESE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. ALL OF THIS WILL HELP DISPLACE
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OPEN UP A CHANNEL OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN
GULF, AND ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE LOCAL AREA IT BECOMES A RATHER LOW PREDICTABILITY REGIME
AS WE REMAIN MOSTLY AWAY FROM A DEEP-LAYER LIFTING MECHANISM.
WHILE THE TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW WOULD FAVOR CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOVING TO THE EAST COAST EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION/MCS' MAY DISRUPT THAT MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN.
NONETHELESS, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH FORECAST PWATS
IN THE TOP 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH PWATS
ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THUS, THE WPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THE RISK
FOR ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IS HIGHEST TODAY OF THE COMING DAYS
AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM EASTERLY TO WESTERLY. THE SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN TRAINING
OR SLOW MOVING STORMS AS THE SEABREEZES EVENTUALLY COLLIDE AND
DRIFT EASTWARD. THE RISK DECREASES A BIT AFTER TODAY AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOLIDLY WESTERLY, INCREASING THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF
AFTERNOON STORMS (THOUGH COVERAGE WILL REMAIN HIGH).
WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL (~90), THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ENSURE HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE LOW 100S EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS FROM PROLONGED TIME OUTDOORS
IS ROUGHLY A LEVEL 2 OF 4 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE WET, LOW PREDICTABILITY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
RANGE. WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING GETTING CLOSER TO THE REGION AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH, CHANCES INCREASE
THAT OUR CONVECTIVE PATTERN COULD REMAIN DEPENDENT ON HOW WE'RE
AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM CONVECTION, AND HOW THAT DISRUPTS THE
TYPICAL SEABREEZE REGIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BUT JUST KNOW THAT AT LEAST THE PATTERN MORE ROOTED IN
CLIMO, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE OMEGA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT AS SHORTWAVES
FROM THE WESTERN LOW ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE AND FURTHER AMPLIFY
THE EASTERN LOW, RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT
BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS
THIS IS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT RELIEF EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
SCATTERED SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOW PREVAILING AT MOST AREA TERMINALS.
MAINLY VFR AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS VEERING TO A WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK.
WINDS AT EAST COAST TERMINALS WILL THEN VEER SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN
17-19Z AS AN ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE MOVES IN. HAVE ADDED IN VCTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR
TERMINALS. TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE TAF FORECASTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY, AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TOMORROW. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AWAY FROM THE SEABREEZE ZONE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH THE PATTERN GENERALLY RESULTING IN CONVECTION
BLOWING INTO THE ATLANTIC FROM THE PENINSULA EACH EVENING. STORMS
IN THE GULF WILL BE DOMINATED MORE BY UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE DOWN THE EAST COAST
BEACHES TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS FROM ONSHORE TO
SOUTHERLY. THE SOUTHERLY TURN COULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK LONGSHORE CURRENT. AS WINDS WEAKEN BY TOMORROW, THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL FALL BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 75 89 76 89 / 60 60 30 50
WEST KENDALL 73 91 74 91 / 60 60 30 50
OPA-LOCKA 75 91 76 91 / 60 50 30 50
HOMESTEAD 76 90 76 90 / 60 50 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 77 89 / 60 50 40 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 88 76 88 / 60 50 40 50
PEMBROKE PINES 76 92 77 92 / 60 50 30 50
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 76 89 / 50 40 30 50
BOCA RATON 76 88 77 89 / 60 50 40 50
NAPLES 77 90 79 89 / 30 10 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HADI
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