074
FXUS62 KMFL 291112
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
712 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 709 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- HEAT STRESS INDICES WILL GENERALLY BE A LEVEL 2 OF 4 THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT ILLNESS DURING PROLONGED
EXPOSURE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
- HOTTEST AFTERNOONS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH EACH DAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SATURDAY, WHEN STORMS MAY BE LESS NUMEROUS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC, A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY, AND A NARROW NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LOW,
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, AND CONNECTING WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION
OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE. LOCALLY WE REMAIN IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS SSW FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF AND STATE
OF FLORIDA. ABSENT ANY DEEP LAYER FORCING, WE'LL RELY ON THE
SEABREEZE FOR TODAY'S CONVECTION. THE GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE COAST TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG IT AROUND 17 OR 18Z. STORMS
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD AS THE GULF BREEZE
REACHES THE EAST COAST AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PREVAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, BECAUSE STEERING FLOW FURTHER UP THE PENINSULA IS
MORE NORTHWESTERLY, WE COULD ACTUALLY GET EVENING CONVECTION
MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH AFTER OUR MORE TYPICAL
SEABREEZE CONVECTION WRAPS UP.
ON SATURDAY, THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND SPREAD SOME MID/UPPER DRY AIR ACROSS THE STATE.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZES, BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. FURTHER, WITH STEERING FLOW
MORE PURELY OUT OF THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE STATE, WE LIKELY WON'T
HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT EVENING CONVECTION FROM THE NORTH. THE FOCUS
AREA FOR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.
MAX TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE REVOLVES AROUND HOW THE OMEGA
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, AS
WELL AS THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE DIFFERENCES
START TO BE INTRODUCED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES
OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND PHASES WITH THE WESTERN US WAVE. IT
APPEARS THESE DISAGREEMENTS HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER LOCALLY. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
SAG FURTHER DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY INTO AND THROUGH MUCH OF FLORIDA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO START THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WHILE WE MAY HAVE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO CONTEND WITH ON
SUNDAY, AT LEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST WE SHOULD GET SOME DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE MATURING LOW. WITH
WNW STEERING FLOW, EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO REMAIN PINNED ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND BE RELATIVELY ACTIVE. AGAIN WE'LL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE
EVENING AS WELL.
WE'LL MOISTEN UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF
INCREASES.
EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, PEAKING IN THE LOWER 90S. THIS, PLUS THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, WILL HELP DRIVE HEAT INDICES UP CLOSER TO 105 EACH
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE EAST COAST, EXPECT A SCATTERING
OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. OPF/MIA/TMB
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY STORMS TODAY WITH
STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE NW, THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THESE
TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TEMPOS TO BE NEEDED FOR FXE/FLL
AS WELL, BUT NOT AT THIS CURRENT TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WEST
TODAY, THE ATLANTIC WILL TAKE ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO TO VEER AROUND
WESTERLY. THEN, GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL (AWAY FROM THE
SEABREEZE) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT A NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAY INCREASE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 76 89 77 / 80 40 40 10
WEST KENDALL 90 74 90 75 / 80 40 40 10
OPA-LOCKA 90 76 90 77 / 80 40 40 10
HOMESTEAD 89 77 90 77 / 80 40 40 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 77 88 77 / 70 40 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 76 88 77 / 60 40 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 91 77 91 78 / 70 40 40 10
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 77 / 50 40 40 20
BOCA RATON 88 77 89 78 / 60 40 40 10
NAPLES 89 79 89 80 / 10 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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