775
FXUS62 KMFL 301956
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 356 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- SMALL RELIEF FROM HEAT AND STORM COVERAGE TODAY.
- ELEVATED HEAT ILLNESS RISK SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN DOMINATED
BY PERSISTING CLOUD COVER, WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRATIFORM
SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS OF SOFLO MAINLY SOUTH OF I-75. IT SEEMS
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ENOUGH TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANTLY
ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT COULD HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY. NO STRONG
INDICATIONS ON RADAR OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EITHER, ALTHOUGH THE
WESTERLY SEA BREEZE COULD BE BLENDING WITH THE STRATIFORM CLOUD
DECKS ON RADAR AND SATELLITE.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS,
CONTINUE TO RUN MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO
FAR. THEREFORE, AFTERNOON GRID PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
INHERITED NBM POPS/WX COVERAGE, WHICH SO FAR LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE THAN MOST OF THE REST OF GUIDANCE. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WILL
BE TO EXTEND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WESTWARD TO BETTER REPRESENT
THE SWATH OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM COASTAL NAPLES THROUGH FORT
LAUDERDALE. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG
THE BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE METRO COASTLINES, ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (EVEN A FEW 80S) NEAR THE COASTS, AND
LOW 70S INLAND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH, A LOW AMPLITUDE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE, AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CAN BE SEPARATED INTO THE
STRONGER, STACKED SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WEAKER COMPONENT IS PART OF A
WAVE THAT WAS ONCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WAS STRETCHED
THROUGH THE GULF AND BROKEN INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CORE. THE
RESIDUAL RIBBON OF +PV THAT STRETCHES THROUGH THE GULF IS
IDENTIFIED BY THE BAND OF DRY AIR ON WV IMAGERY, WITH A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS PRECEDING IT. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL
OVERRUNNING WILL SPREAD ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY AND ACT TO LIMIT
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. MODELED RH ALSO DEPICTS A POCKET OF
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR THAT MAY HAVE BEEN PINCHED OFF FROM
THE RETREATING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SPARKS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS,
FLOW AROUND THE BACK OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY PUMP
ENOUGH MOISTURE DOWN THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY TO FORCE OUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED POCKET OF DRY AIR. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY, ALONG THE EAST
COAST, AND PROBABLY NORTH ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE MORE PRESENT.
ON SUNDAY, MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRAGMENTED SHORTWAVE THAT EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE NWRLY BETWEEN THE
EASTWARD SHIFTING TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN, DRIER NORTHERN GULF AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AND START TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE
MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION, AND NOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION, EXPECT A
LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE THAT
WILL BE MOSTLY PINNED TO THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONALLY, FURTHER UP
THE PENINSULA, CONVECTION INITIATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD PROPAGATE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER THE WNW STEERING FLOW BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES, AND HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO 100. ON
SUNDAY WE'LL WARM INTO THE LOW 90S AGAIN, WITH HEAT INDICES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE HOW THE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS THE EARLY-WEEK SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
RESULTANT WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLOGENESIS AND JUST HOW QUICKLY AND
CLEANLY THE EARLIER MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS THROUGH
FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW IT PLAYS OUT, IT APPEARS THAT
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
MID-WEEK AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO END THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
THE FRONT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE, BUT IT'S UNLIKELY WE'LL BE
COMPLETELY DRY IN EITHER CASE. THIS ALSO MEANS WARMER DAYS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER AROUND MID-WEEK
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR AND WESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS. AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE
IN THE DAY, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL (AWAY FROM THE SEABREEZE) FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A
NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MAY INCREASE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 91 76 91 / 10 70 20 70
WEST KENDALL 75 92 75 92 / 10 70 20 70
OPA-LOCKA 77 92 77 93 / 10 70 30 70
HOMESTEAD 77 91 77 91 / 10 60 10 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 89 77 90 / 10 70 30 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 89 76 90 / 10 70 30 70
PEMBROKE PINES 78 93 78 93 / 10 70 30 70
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 76 90 / 20 70 40 60
BOCA RATON 78 89 77 90 / 10 70 30 70
NAPLES 79 90 79 90 / 10 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page