064
FXUS62 KMFL 310517
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
117 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SMALL RELIEF FROM HEAT AND STORM COVERAGE TODAY.
- ELEVATED HEAT ILLNESS RISK SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH, A LOW AMPLITUDE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE, AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CAN BE SEPARATED INTO THE
STRONGER, STACKED SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WEAKER COMPONENT IS PART OF A
WAVE THAT WAS ONCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WAS STRETCHED
THROUGH THE GULF AND BROKEN INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CORE. THE
RESIDUAL RIBBON OF +PV THAT STRETCHES THROUGH THE GULF IS
IDENTIFIED BY THE BAND OF DRY AIR ON WV IMAGERY, WITH A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS PRECEDING IT. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL
OVERRUNNING WILL SPREAD ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY AND ACT TO LIMIT
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. MODELED RH ALSO DEPICTS A POCKET OF
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR THAT MAY HAVE BEEN PINCHED OFF FROM
THE RETREATING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SPARKS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS,
FLOW AROUND THE BACK OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY PUMP
ENOUGH MOISTURE DOWN THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY TO FORCE OUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED POCKET OF DRY AIR. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY, ALONG THE EAST
COAST, AND PROBABLY NORTH ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE MORE PRESENT.
ON SUNDAY, MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRAGMENTED SHORTWAVE THAT EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE NWRLY BETWEEN THE
EASTWARD SHIFTING TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN, DRIER NORTHERN GULF AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AND START TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE
MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION, AND NOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION, EXPECT A
LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE THAT
WILL BE MOSTLY PINNED TO THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONALLY, FURTHER UP
THE PENINSULA, CONVECTION INITIATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD PROPAGATE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER THE WNW STEERING FLOW BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES, AND HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO 100. ON
SUNDAY WE'LL WARM INTO THE LOW 90S AGAIN, WITH HEAT INDICES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE HOW THE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS THE EARLY-WEEK SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
RESULTANT WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLOGENESIS AND JUST HOW QUICKLY AND
CLEANLY THE EARLIER MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS THROUGH
FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW IT PLAYS OUT, IT APPEARS THAT
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
MID-WEEK AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO END THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
THE FRONT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE, BUT IT'S UNLIKELY WE'LL BE
COMPLETELY DRY IN EITHER CASE. THIS ALSO MEANS WARMER DAYS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER AROUND MID-WEEK
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM STORMS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF. BREAKS IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY ALLOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW, WILL HANDLE WITH
VCTS, BUT MORE TARGETED TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE 21Z-01Z
PERIOD LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL (AWAY FROM THE SEABREEZE) FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A
NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MAY INCREASE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 91 76 91 76 / 70 20 70 10
WEST KENDALL 92 75 92 75 / 70 20 70 10
OPA-LOCKA 92 77 93 77 / 70 30 70 10
HOMESTEAD 91 77 91 77 / 60 10 60 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 77 90 77 / 70 30 70 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 76 90 77 / 70 30 70 10
PEMBROKE PINES 93 78 93 78 / 70 30 70 10
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 90 77 / 70 40 60 10
BOCA RATON 89 77 90 78 / 70 30 70 10
NAPLES 90 79 90 80 / 10 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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