686
FXUS62 KMFL 010722
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
322 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
- CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH FEWER STORMS EXPECTED TODAY.
- WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAYS.
- EARLY WEEK HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING ARE THE
BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH ITS CORE OVER THE NORTHEAST, A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. ALSO WORTH
MENTIONING IS THE LARGE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
THAT FRACTURED FROM A RIBBON OF +PV ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
GULF LATE LAST WEEK. IT HAS BEEN FORCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND STEADILY PUMPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. THE
MOISTURE HAS THEN BEEN ADVECTING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE SE
GULF. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS BETWEEN THE MOST SATURATED AIRMASSES
(LIKELY DUE TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE), BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER SATURATED COLUMN IS SET TO PASS OVERHEAD TODAY. WHAT MAKES
THIS FORECAST CHALLENGING IS THAT THE MINORITY OF A SUPERENSEMBLE
OF CAM AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE FORECAST THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND
PERIODIC SHOWERS (LIKE ON SATURDAY), BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE WHAT
IS EVOLVING UPSTREAM.
THAT SAID, I'M MORE INCLINED TO FORECAST A LOW CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TODAY WITH THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. EVEN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAVORS THIS SCENARIO HAS AT LEAST A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING LATE
TODAY, AND TEND TO FAVOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
BE A POCKET OF LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THIS AREA THAT COULD ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE DESTABILIZATION. THE OTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE A
STORM OR TWO WOULD BE NORTH ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY, IN THE
EVENING, WHEN OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY
TRIGGER CONVECTION.
THE OTHER IMPLICATIONS OF THE MORE STABLE FORECAST WOULD BE HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE UPPER 80S THAN THE LOWER 90S. EITHER WAY, IT'S GOING
TO FEEL HOT TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES EITHER NEAR 100 OR CLOSER TO
105 (IN THE LESS CLOUDY CASE).
REALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FEATURES AT PLAY ON TUESDAY. IF WE CAN TAP
INTO SOME DRIER AIR THEN WE'LL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND LESS CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE, IT'LL BE ANOTHER
SUPPRESSED AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST TRENDS TOWARDS A BIT
MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DEPEND UPON THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT'S FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO
TODAY. THE DIFFERENCES SEEM TO REVOLVE AROUND HOW MUCH IT
INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE AND HOW FAR AWAY FROM
THE CORE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IT GETS PULLED. SOLUTIONS
THAT KEEP THEM SEPARATED, DEEPEN THE EASTERN CONUS LOW AND HAVE A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SURFACE LOW FORMING EARLY TO MID-WEEK. THE
SOLUTIONS THAT TANGLE THE TWO FEATURES HAS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH
A CUTOFF COMPONENT TO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC CYCLOGENESIS MID TO LATE WEEK. IT'S ROUGHLY A 70/30 SPLIT
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION WINNING OUT AT THIS POINT. AT THIS TIME
THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL FAVOR THIS AS WELL. SO, FOR
NOW THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE SLOWER PROGRESSION WHICH GIVES
US THE WETTEST DAYS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HAS A RELATIVELY
DRY DAY ON FRIDAY, AND THEN BRINGS SEASONABLE RAIN CHANCES UNDER
EASTERLY FLOW BACK INTO THE PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM STORMS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF SSE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHEN THE SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS TOUGH AGAIN TODAY. COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY
BE LOW DUE TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT CONSENSUS/PERSISTENCE FAVORS
MIAMI-DADE AND PALM BEACH COASTS FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THOSE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL WILL WORK DOWN THE
EAST COAST LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN THE
WINDS AND ALSO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SWELL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 77 90 76 / 70 10 60 50
WEST KENDALL 91 75 92 74 / 60 10 60 50
OPA-LOCKA 92 77 91 76 / 70 10 70 50
HOMESTEAD 90 77 91 76 / 70 10 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 89 77 / 60 20 60 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 90 77 88 76 / 60 20 60 50
PEMBROKE PINES 93 78 92 77 / 70 10 60 50
WEST PALM BEACH 91 78 89 76 / 50 20 50 60
BOCA RATON 91 78 89 77 / 60 20 50 50
NAPLES 90 80 90 78 / 10 10 20 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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