342
FXUS62 KMFL 021920
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
FLORIDA.
- A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- APPARENT TEMPERATURES (FEELS-LIKE) COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST URBAN AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SOUTH FLORIDA FINDS ITSELF IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT AND UNDER A RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS, WITH PWATS CLIMBING UP TO
AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE 18Z MFL SOUNDING. ALOFT, LONGWAVE
TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHICH WILL HELP
ADVECT SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION AND
PROVIDE INCREASED SHEAR ACROSS FLORIDA. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, CYCLOGENESIS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A "COLD" FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
WITH EVEN A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND ISOLATED FLOODING IMPACTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST.
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 35 KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 18Z MFL SOUNDING INDICATES UP TO 25 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THE MIAMI AREA, WHICH IS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN WHAT MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING. OVERALL, THERMODYNAMICS
SHOULD BE PRETTY FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CAPE VALUES
LOOKING TO CLIMB UP TO NEAR 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM. THE UPPER AIR OBSERVATION SHOWS A MORE MOIST
PROFILE THAN WHAT SOME OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING, SO WE MAY BE
TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THAN A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. A SLIGHT INVERTED V PROFILE AND SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO MATURE ENOUGH, SUPPORTED BY DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800
J/KG. CAMS INDICATE THAT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE, FOCUSING OVER THE METRO AREAS FROM
MIAMI TO PALM BEACH. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD AMONG GUIDANCE ON
WHERE THE MAJORITY OF STRONGER STORMS WILL FOCUS, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS FAVORING MORE SOUTHERN STORMS (WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVIER
RAIN OVER DADE) AND OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOWING MORE NORTHERN STORMS
(WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR PALM BEACH). IN ANY
CASE, THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE THERE FOR BOTH ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS DADE AND BROWARD AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES FOR PALM BEACH. TIMING HAS BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE BIT
LATER, WITH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKING TO FOCUS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, ACTIVITY SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM AND WINDS
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER LAND. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT
LOOKS TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING AND STALL SHORT OF
THE END OF THE PENINSULA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH MAY SERVE TO
LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORCING FROM THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY
SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH POPS IN THE
40 TO 50% RANGE AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW MAY ALSO
INHIBIT A TRUE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION FROM FORMING, AND A COOLER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT ANY DEEPER CONVECTION FROM
FORMING. GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN EVERGLADES AND
SOUTHEAST DADE FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD SEEM TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MAX HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S
AREAWIDE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK FOR ALL
METRO AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND ADVECTS EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS
AT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE REMAINING AT OR
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-OFF LOW (AND
NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE) OVER THE REGION OR JUST EAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW AND SURFACE FLOW DIRECTION
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPLICATIONS ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFFECTING THE EAST COAST METRO
AREA. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ANY
STORMS THAT MOVE OVER ANY TERMINALS, SO TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD. WINDS BECOME
MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AS THE FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL VEER TO
AN ONSHORE DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AS WELL AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SWELL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
BY LATE WEEK ACROSS THE GULFSTREAM WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS AND WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD IN NATURE ACROSS GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 75 85 75 83 / 60 60 50 60
WEST KENDALL 74 87 73 84 / 60 60 40 70
OPA-LOCKA 75 86 75 84 / 60 50 40 60
HOMESTEAD 76 87 75 84 / 50 70 60 80
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 84 76 82 / 70 60 50 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 76 84 76 82 / 70 60 50 60
PEMBROKE PINES 77 87 76 85 / 70 60 40 60
WEST PALM BEACH 75 84 76 83 / 70 60 40 40
BOCA RATON 76 84 76 83 / 70 60 50 50
NAPLES 77 88 73 86 / 30 50 40 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...NMP
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