046
FXUS62 KMFL 031721
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
121 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
- WHILE UNCERTAIN, ANY PROLONGED DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
URBAN AREAS TODAY COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
AS EXPECTED, HEAVY RAINFALL IS STARTING TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS
ACROSS THE AREA. ACARS SOUNDINGS AT MIA SHOW PWAT VALUES OVER 2
INCHES AND DECENT FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE WITH NE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN JUST
ENOUGH MOTION TO PREVENT ANY FLOODING ISSUES, HOWEVER AS COVERAGE
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SOME URBAN FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ISSUED A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE FOR
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, AND EXTENDED THE CURRENT HIGH RISK FOR PALM
BEACH THROUGH FRIDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
06Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SATURATED YET STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL DEPICT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (THAT IS DUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY) DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL FLORIDA, IDENTIFIED BY
A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND A THIN LINE OF ONGOING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEFORE WE DIVE INTO TODAY'S FORECAST
FURTHER, LET'S TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DRIVING MECHANICS BEHIND
THE FORECAST WITH A WIDE- EYED LENS AND THEN HONE IN ON SPECIFIC
FORECAST DETAILS. RTMA ANALYSIS DEPICTS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MORNING WITH A RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT OF A MERIDIONAL ORIENTED
JET-STREAK. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET-STREAK (NO NEED
TO REFERENCE THE FOUR QUADRANT MODEL) HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO
CONNECTED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO DRAG THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARDS INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WANES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, A
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE,
RESULTING IN BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
USHER IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY (PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE) IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA). THE SAME
MECHANISM THAT WILL USHER IN THOSE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF TODAY. FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER
THERE IS ALSO SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS THAT COULD ALSO BE IN PLAY TO
STIFLE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LET'S DISCUSS
THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FIRST, SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN A PLUME OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TODAY THAT HAS REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
IN TANDEM WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN ANY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION REMAINING PINNED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT COULD KEEP
THINGS STABLE OVER LAND WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL EXTENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS WELL AS A FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF. THIS HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IS VISIBLY PRESENT IN THE
WIDE RANGE OF 00Z HREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DEPICT POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME MODEL MEMBERS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH, LEANING MORE-SO TO
A STABLE STRATIFORM SETUP TODAY. HOWEVER, OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS DEPICTS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3-5+
INCHES POSSIBLE. IF HIGHER END RAINFALL TOTALS MATERIALIZE OVER URBAN
AREAS TODAY, URBAN FLOODING COULD BE REALIZED. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE EAST COAST METRO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS, LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND SUB-
SEVERE GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS.
FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SLOW ALONG THE EAST
COAST COULD KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN EAST COAST LOCALES EVEN
AFTER DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE DISCUSSED IN MORE
DETAIL ABOVE, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
A LARGE WARM CLOUD LAYER, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN THE CONTINUATION OF A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER FROM
THE BOUNDARY AND ANY DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHED ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON THE POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC AND
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD INFLUENCE OUR LOCAL WEATHER REGIME.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINING SITUATED IN A DIPOLE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND A SEPARATE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. A STREAM OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, A PLUME OF DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHWARDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE INFLUENCE AND STRENGTH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
75TH-90TH PERCENTILE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, 500MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WARM AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD, SURFACE
BACKGROUND FLOW REMAINING OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL FOCUS
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND HIGHER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH FORECASTED VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT LOBE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY SOME MODEL MEMBERS (GFS)
TO SLOW IN MOMENTUM AND BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW. OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE
(EURO) DEPICTS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION OF TROUGHING
FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. REGARDLESS, MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS DEPICT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RETROGRADING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
A SURGE OF SURFACE WINDS IS FORECAST ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
IS FORECASTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA OR JUST SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING THE 7-9
FEET RANGE ACROSS THE GULFSTREAM WATERS DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE ENHANCEMENT OF NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AT PALM BEACH COUNTY
BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAT IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COMBINATION
OF A SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTERLY SWELL MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUED ONSHORE SURFACE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTY BEACHES ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 81 74 84 / 60 70 40 50
WEST KENDALL 72 83 71 85 / 60 70 40 50
OPA-LOCKA 74 83 74 85 / 60 70 40 50
HOMESTEAD 74 83 75 85 / 60 80 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 81 75 83 / 60 60 40 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 81 75 83 / 50 60 30 40
PEMBROKE PINES 75 84 75 86 / 60 60 30 40
WEST PALM BEACH 75 82 75 84 / 40 40 20 30
BOCA RATON 75 82 76 84 / 50 50 20 40
NAPLES 72 84 72 88 / 30 70 20 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-676.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...CMF
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