106
FXUS62 KMFL 040525
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
- SLOW MOVING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY, ESPECIALLY WHERE
SOILS ARE SATURATED.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
05Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A CONTINUED DEWPOINT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
THIS HOUR. WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW 60S, QUITE THE COMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR
JUNE STANDARDS IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A MUCH DIFFERENT EXPERIENCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MUGGY LOW 70S. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS, FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE
IN TANDEM WITH A CONDUCIVE SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE (SKINNY
CAPE AND WARM CLOUD LAYER) HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED
REGENERATION AND ADVECTION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND METRO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. THE SLOWING OF SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAS RESULTED
IN A TROUGH OF MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED
BACK-BUILDING OF CONVECTION ACROSS THESE COASTAL URBAN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS WANED COMPARED TO THE EARLIER ACTIVITY THAT
RESULTED IN 5-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY; THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE 00Z HREF LPMM GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
THESE HIGHER LOCALIZED SWATHS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA (BELOW ALLIGATOR ALLEY/I-75) TODAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS COULD RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. CLOUD COVER AND THE
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE IS FORECAST TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION, TOPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS PREVALENT THERE.
THE DEPARTURE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NEARBY WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL USHER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. RIDGING WILL ALSO ENHANCE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL ACT TO
PUSH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THAT
ENVELOPE OF DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTHWARDS, RESULTING IN A
FURTHER REDUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY, MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHERN SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON AN UPWARD
TREND ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN
FORECASTED TEMPERATURE VALUES PEAKING IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-
WIDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
AS HAS BEEN A CONTINUED TREND OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RESOLVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW HIGHLIGHT SOUTH FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDING UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN WHAT HAS BEEN QUITE THE PERSISTENT STREAM OF
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ALOFT OF THE REGION FINALLY PUSHING WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE
BULLISH ON MUCH DRIER AIR BEING ABLE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON SATURDAY
NOW APPEAR TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE WHICH COINCIDES WITH A
NOTEWORTHY DROP IN THE LATEST NBM'S RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON (20-30% ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA). HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND UP ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE SUPPRESSING ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMP VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST TO LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
THE ADVECTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WILL BRING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION, AND USHER IN HIGHER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD, SURFACE BACKGROUND
FLOW REMAINING OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL FOCUS DIURNAL
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE ON
THE UPTICK, RANGING FROM FORECASTED VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD AND
SETTLE INTO THE GULF EARLY ON MONDAY AS SEVERAL LOBES OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY TRANSIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE AMPLIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ACTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE LATE ON
MONDAY, WITH THE ADVECT ON POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY ACT TO VEER SURFACE WINDS MORE OUT
OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
(NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS) FROM THE CARIBBEAN ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AFTER A LULL IN MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE THREAT
COULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN DURING THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST NOW SHOWS DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN THE 70-
80% RANGE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
SUB MVFR CIGS AND VIS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA IS OCCURRING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF A
NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY WITH ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS IN AND AROUND
ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS
IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS IN INTENSITY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LESSEN TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS BY THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RESIDUAL WAVE HEIGHTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE 7-8 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE GULFSTREAM WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AND BREEZY
ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PREVAILING AT ALL EAST COAST BEACHES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 74 85 75 / 40 20 20 10
WEST KENDALL 84 72 86 72 / 50 30 30 10
OPA-LOCKA 84 74 86 75 / 40 20 20 10
HOMESTEAD 83 75 86 75 / 50 30 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 75 84 76 / 30 10 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 75 84 76 / 30 10 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 85 75 88 76 / 40 20 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 83 75 85 76 / 20 10 0 10
BOCA RATON 83 76 85 77 / 30 10 10 10
NAPLES 87 72 89 73 / 50 20 40 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ651-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-676.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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