016
FXUS62 KMFL 041811
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 204 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
- SLOW MOVING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY, ESPECIALLY WHERE
SOILS ARE SATURATED AND OVER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS, WHICH WILL
KEEP ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS PUSHING SOUTH INTO FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. YET AT THIS MOMENT, QUITE A SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENT STILL RESIDES OVER THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ACARS
SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE REGION ARE SHOWING THAT SOUTH FLORIDA
STILL REMAINS UNDER AN ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH PWATS IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER,
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE QUICKLY DECREASES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH, CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT,
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHOW THAT PWATS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW HALF AN INCH. THE FORECAST POPS REFLECT
THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF 70% TO 80% OVER
FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA BAY (WHERE THERE IS ALSO
BETTER FORCING FROM THE BOUNDARY). POPS DECREASE TO 15% TO 20%
OVER THE NORTHERN EVERGLADES AND BELOW 10% NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACH.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE TRICKY PART ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON'S
FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN
HINDER DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. A MID-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF KEY WEST. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA, IT MAY BE ABLE TO ADVECT A FEW MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
IMPULSES OVER THE REGION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT SOME OF THESE
VORTICITY FEATURES MAY SERVE TO INVIGORATE SOME STRONGER STORM
ACTIVITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WITH VALUES UP TO 1200 J/KG, WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES. WITH LOW SHEAR AND WEAK MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG. INSTEAD, WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW, SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CREATE MORE OF A HYDRO THREAT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN URBAN AREAS. HREF ENSEMBLE LPMMS CONTINUE TO SHOW 4
TO 5 INCH BULLSEYES ALONG SOUTHERN METRO MIAMI-DADE, MOST LIKELY
DRIVEN BY THE HIRES-ARW AND HIRES-FV3 MEMBERS WHICH SHOW AS MUCH AS
7 INCHES IN SPOTS (MORE OF A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO).
OVERALL, 6 HOUR QPF PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IS AROUND
40% FOR SOUTH DADE, SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 INCHES. AS A RESULT, A MARGINAL RISK OF URBAN FLOODING
EXISTS, MAINLY AFFECTING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING LOCATIONS.
LASTLY, SOME GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE HRRR) IS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING SOME
COASTAL CONVERGENCE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING, THIS
COULD KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY HAVE REALLY FALLEN OFF A
CLIFF, WITH ONLY 20 TO 30% AT MOST FOR FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA. 24 HOUR
HREF LPPMS ARE ONLY SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5" TO 1" AT MOST
FOR THE METRO AREA. THIS DROP IN RAIN CHANCES IS IN PART DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH,
WHILE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT.
PWATS DROP DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A DRIER
MID-LEVEL LAYER SHOULD LIMIT STRONG CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR EASTERN SOFLO AND UP TO 90 OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
AS HAS BEEN A CONTINUED TREND OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RESOLVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW HIGHLIGHT SOUTH FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDING UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN WHAT HAS BEEN QUITE THE PERSISTENT STREAM OF
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ALOFT OF THE REGION FINALLY PUSHING WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE
BULLISH ON MUCH DRIER AIR BEING ABLE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON SATURDAY
NOW APPEAR TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE WHICH COINCIDES WITH A
NOTEWORTHY DROP IN THE LATEST NBM'S RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON (20-30% ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA). HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND UP ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE SUPPRESSING ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMP VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST TO LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
THE ADVECTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WILL BRING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION, AND USHER IN HIGHER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD, SURFACE BACKGROUND
FLOW REMAINING OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL FOCUS DIURNAL
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE ON
THE UPTICK, RANGING FROM FORECASTED VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD AND
SETTLE INTO THE GULF EARLY ON MONDAY AS SEVERAL LOBES OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY TRANSIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE AMPLIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ACTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE LATE ON
MONDAY, WITH THE ADVECT ON POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY ACT TO VEER SURFACE WINDS MORE OUT
OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
(NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS) FROM THE CARIBBEAN ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AFTER A LULL IN MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE THREAT
COULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN DURING THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST NOW SHOWS DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN THE 70-
80% RANGE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY AT ALL SITES. WIDESPREAD BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WILL
BE COMMON, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE OBSERVED, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN
MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WIND SPEEDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS IN INTENSITY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LESSEN TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS BY THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RESIDUAL WAVE HEIGHTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE 7-8 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE GULFSTREAM WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AND BREEZY
ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PREVAILING AT ALL EAST COAST BEACHES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 75 84 75 86 / 20 20 10 10
WEST KENDALL 72 85 72 88 / 30 20 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 74 86 75 88 / 20 20 10 10
HOMESTEAD 75 85 75 87 / 40 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 84 76 86 / 20 20 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 84 76 85 / 10 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 76 87 76 89 / 20 20 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 75 85 76 86 / 0 10 0 10
BOCA RATON 76 85 77 86 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 72 89 73 91 / 20 30 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...NMP
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