187
FXUS62 KMFL 042337
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
737 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 732 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
- SLOW MOVING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY, ESPECIALLY WHERE
SOILS ARE SATURATED AND OVER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
- HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S FOR SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS, WHICH WILL
KEEP ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS PUSHING SOUTH INTO FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. YET AT THIS MOMENT, QUITE A SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENT STILL RESIDES OVER THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ACARS
SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE REGION ARE SHOWING THAT SOUTH FLORIDA
STILL REMAINS UNDER AN ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH PWATS IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER,
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE QUICKLY DECREASES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH, CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT,
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHOW THAT PWATS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW HALF AN INCH. THE FORECAST POPS REFLECT
THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF 70% TO 80% OVER
FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA BAY (WHERE THERE IS ALSO
BETTER FORCING FROM THE BOUNDARY). POPS DECREASE TO 15% TO 20%
OVER THE NORTHERN EVERGLADES AND BELOW 10% NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACH.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE TRICKY PART ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON'S
FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN
HINDER DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. A MID-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF KEY WEST. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA, IT MAY BE ABLE TO ADVECT A FEW MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
IMPULSES OVER THE REGION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT SOME OF THESE
VORTICITY FEATURES MAY SERVE TO INVIGORATE SOME STRONGER STORM
ACTIVITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WITH VALUES UP TO 1200 J/KG, WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES. WITH LOW SHEAR AND WEAK MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG. INSTEAD, WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW, SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CREATE MORE OF A HYDRO THREAT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN URBAN AREAS. HREF ENSEMBLE LPMMS CONTINUE TO SHOW 4
TO 5 INCH BULLSEYES ALONG SOUTHERN METRO MIAMI-DADE, MOST LIKELY
DRIVEN BY THE HIRES-ARW AND HIRES-FV3 MEMBERS WHICH SHOW AS MUCH AS
7 INCHES IN SPOTS (MORE OF A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO).
OVERALL, 6 HOUR QPF PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IS AROUND
40% FOR SOUTH DADE, SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 INCHES. AS A RESULT, A MARGINAL RISK OF URBAN FLOODING
EXISTS, MAINLY AFFECTING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING LOCATIONS.
LASTLY, SOME GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE HRRR) IS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING SOME
COASTAL CONVERGENCE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING, THIS
COULD KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY HAVE REALLY FALLEN OFF A
CLIFF, WITH ONLY 20 TO 30% AT MOST FOR FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA. 24 HOUR
HREF LPPMS ARE ONLY SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5" TO 1" AT MOST
FOR THE METRO AREA. THIS DROP IN RAIN CHANCES IS IN PART DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH,
WHILE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT.
PWATS DROP DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A DRIER
MID-LEVEL LAYER SHOULD LIMIT STRONG CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR EASTERN SOFLO AND UP TO 90 OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE START OF THE JUNE 6-7 WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUITE NICE FOR MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TO TREND DRIER, WITH POPS
TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 15 TO 25%. PWATS LOOK TO DROP BELOW ONE AND A
HALF AN INCHES ON SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH H5 HEIGHTS CLIMBING UP TO 590 DM. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JUNE, IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CAROLINA COAST, WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING TO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, BUT HEATRISK WILL
REMAIN MINOR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK WESTWARD OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO CLIMB BACK NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA, WITH PWATS
RISING BUT UP INTO THE 1.8 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN, BUT WITH
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING, THIS SHOULD KEEP THE GULF BREEZE
PINNED FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ON SUNDAY, AND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, HEAT INDICES
WILL CREEP UP INTO THE LOWER 100S FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING WETTER FOR MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD AND FLATTEN A LITTLE AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO SLIDE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CORRIDOR FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
TO MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO FLORIDA, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING PWATS
CLIMBING BACK OVER 2 INCHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE AREA. OVERALL, NBM HAS POPS IN THE 60% TO 80% RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE, BUT HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02-03Z WITH
PASSING SHOWERS. THEN MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ENE WINDS AROUND
8-10KT. WIDESPREAD BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 20-25KT ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS IN INTENSITY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LESSEN TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS BY THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RESIDUAL WAVE HEIGHTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE 7-8 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE GULFSTREAM WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AND BREEZY
ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PREVAILING AT ALL EAST COAST BEACHES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 84 74 86 / 40 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 71 85 71 88 / 40 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 74 86 74 88 / 30 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 75 84 75 87 / 50 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 84 76 86 / 20 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 84 75 85 / 10 10 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 76 87 76 89 / 20 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 75 85 75 86 / 0 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 76 84 76 86 / 0 10 0 10
NAPLES 73 89 72 91 / 20 20 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...17
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