646
FXUS62 KMFL 051105
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 705 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT ALL EAST
COAST BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
- DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE
MAKES A RETURN TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
USING ELOQUENT VERBIAGE, ONE CAN SAY THAT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING IS FINALLY MORE DESICCANT AFTER A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HUMIDITY AND RINSE AND REPEAT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. 05Z MESOANALYSIS IN TANDEM WITH LATEST ACARS DATA, GOES-
EAST DERIVED ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING DATA, AND THE EARLIER 00Z UPPER
AIR LAUNCH AT NWS MIAMI ALL INDICATE A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW ENHANCES AROUND THE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING NOW PUSHING
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS EXPANSION OF
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN THE DISPLACEMENT
OF THE ENVELOPE OF MORE ANOMALOUS/ABOVE AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PREVIOUSLY IN PLAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA (AND THE INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
SURFACE BOUNDARY) FURTHER SOUTHWARDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
ALOFT, A PERIOD OF LIGHT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THE REGION GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED
BY AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH THE EXPANSION OF SURFACE AND MID-
LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION TODAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE ON THE DECREASING TREND, POTENTIALLY DROPPING NEAR 1 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY, FIRMLY BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO
THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE MAINLY ANHYDROUS CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. OUTSIDE OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH, 70-90%
PROBABILITY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER ODDS FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MEDIUM, 40-60%
PROBABILITY RANGE) BEING CARRIED INTO THE REGION FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING ANY
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WILL RESIDE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA WITH PROBABILITIES REMAINING IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY VIA LOW CAPPED CLOUD COVER ADVECTING ALONG IN THE BRISK
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THAT CONTINUED ONSHORE BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND VALUES CLOSE TO 90 ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOUTH FLORIDA
AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDING UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND MORE BULLISH ON
REINFORCING DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
WITH A FORECASTED DECREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND THE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTOLYTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS, MORE INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL PEAK
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND
BREEZE MODERATED VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE (NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE) FOR THE
DATE WHICH COINCIDES WITH A CONTINUED DROP IN THE LATEST NBM'S RAIN
CHANCES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON (LESS THAN 10% ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA) WHICH EQUATES TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AS THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM HIGHER HUMIDITY
BEGINS TO ERODE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST BY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN WHILE THE AXIS ITSELF
RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL VEER
NORTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH 500MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, INDICATIVE OF THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING ALOFT. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC.
DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION IN RESPONSE, WHICH WILL
USHER IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO THE DAILY MEAN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING
THIS PERIOD, SURFACE BACKGROUND FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL ACT TO FOCUS DIURNAL CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON VIA THE MAXIMIZED ASCENT OF THE GULF BREEZE. 500MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE MAY ACT TO KEEP CONVECTION
RELATIVELY BENIGN IN NATURE, ALTHOUGH LIGHTING AND HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD STILL BE REALIZED IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE ON THE UPTICK, RANGING FROM
FORECASTED VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER APPARENT TEMPERATURES
(HEAT INDICES) ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK
VALUES IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND VALUES IN
THE UPPER 90S ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD AND
SETTLE FURTHER INTO THE GULF EARLY ON MONDAY AS SEVERAL LOBES OF MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS IN THE GULF LATE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
THESE AFOREMENTIONED LOBES OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ARE DEPICTED BY
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY ACT TO VEER SURFACE WINDS MORE OUT OF A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A NOTEWORTHY SURGE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE (NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS) FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ARRIVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AFTER A LULL IN MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE THREAT COULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN DURING
THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
REMAINS STEADY IN DEPICTING DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN THE 70-80% RANGE
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AND ANY RESULTANT CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
ENE/NERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO ENHANCE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL LESSEN ONCE
AGAIN TO 8-10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY, RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUING TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY,
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF ZONES. WAVES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LESSEN IN THE GULFSTREAM WATERS TODAY AS A
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL GRADUALLY DECREASES IN AMPLITUDE. SURFACE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF WINDS BRIEFLY VEERING TO AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
MOISTURE LIFTS BACK INTO THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AND BREEZY
ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PREVAILING AT ALL EAST COAST BEACHES
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 74 86 76 / 10 0 10 20
WEST KENDALL 85 71 88 73 / 10 0 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 86 74 88 76 / 10 0 10 20
HOMESTEAD 84 75 87 76 / 20 0 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 76 86 77 / 0 0 10 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 75 86 77 / 0 0 10 30
PEMBROKE PINES 87 75 89 77 / 0 0 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 85 75 86 77 / 0 10 10 20
BOCA RATON 84 76 86 77 / 0 0 10 20
NAPLES 89 71 91 73 / 10 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...99
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