590
FXUS62 KMFL 061118
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
718 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT ALL EAST
COAST BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.
- DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY MUCH OF SUNDAY.
HEAT INDICES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
MOISTURE RETURNS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
STOUT MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DUE TO A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS
A RESULT OF THIS FLOW CHANGE WITH PWATS FALLING TO A RANGE OF 1.1-
1.4" OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. SOME AREAS WILL SEE EVEN
LOWER PWAT VALUES DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AND THE 1.1-1.4" RANGE IS
NEAR THE LOWEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (RANGING FROM ABOVE THE 25TH
PERCENTILE TO THE DRIEST EVER FOR JUNE 5-6). THEREFORE, THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FAVORING SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
LEAD TO MUCH LESS RAIN ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR AND MOST OF THIS MOISTURE LIKELY FOCUSING IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. UNDER THIS
EASTERLY REGIME, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER FOR THE GULF COAST AND
INTERIOR REGIONS AS EASTERLY FLOW RESULTS IN A PINNED GULF BREEZE
ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE GETS
FORCED FURTHER INLAND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AND THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST AREAS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE BACK INTO
IN THE LOW TO MID 100S FOR THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY AS SOME SLIGHT
MOISTURE RESURGENCE CAUSES AN UPTICK IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS IN THE GULF LATE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, SEVERAL LOBES OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FORCING IN ADDITION TO
DAILY MESOSCALE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY ACT TO VEER SURFACE WINDS MORE
OUT OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A NOTEWORTHY SURGE
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS) FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH IN
GENERAL LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH SOLUTIONS MID-
WEEK THROUGH LATE WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT SOLUTION THAT TAKES PLACE, THE ONE THING
THAT THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC LONG TERM GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS IS INCREASING RISK FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES BEING FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE
POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 70-80% OR HIGHER. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND ANY RESULTANT CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, BUT RIGHT NOW THEY ARE FORECAST TO MOSTLY BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
AT 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS FROM 15Z ONWARDS TODAY. EXPECTING A
SLIGHT VEERING TO AN ENE DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. AT KAPF, A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE
DAY AFTER 20Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY
TO WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS AS
THE GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED NEAR THE GULF WATERS. HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
MOISTURE LIFTS BACK INTO THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN 3-5 FEET
IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
CONTINUOUS ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PREVAILING AT ALL EAST COAST BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS RISK MAY CONTINUE AND WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE VERY LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 87 76 88 77 / 10 20 20 10
WEST KENDALL 88 73 90 75 / 10 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 88 76 90 77 / 10 20 20 10
HOMESTEAD 87 76 89 77 / 10 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 77 87 78 / 10 20 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 77 87 78 / 10 20 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 89 77 91 78 / 10 20 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 86 76 88 78 / 10 10 20 10
BOCA RATON 86 77 88 79 / 10 20 20 10
NAPLES 91 73 92 76 / 10 10 30 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...99
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