646
FXUS62 KMFL 221108
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
708 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 707 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS COULD BE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S, AND HEAT INDICES
LINGER IN THE 103-106F RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
INFLUENCED THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.
NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
IN RECENT DAYS, AND MOSTLY CONSTRAINED TO THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. NBM WAS A BIT OVERZEALOUS IN ITS POPS EACH
AFTERNOON, SO WE LOWERED CHANCES A BIT (INTO THE 40-50% RANGE).
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION STARTING ON
TUESDAY, AIDED BY AN APPROACHING PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST. THIS WILL
HELP FURTHER INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BREEZE BOUNDARIES) COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
HEAT WILL REMAIN A BIG CONCERN TODAY, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACH THE LOW 100S.
HOWEVER, THE RISK OF HEAT INDICES REACHING OR EXCEEDING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA REMAINS FAIRLY MARGINAL TODAY. IN FACT, RECENT
VERIFICATION STATS HAVE SHOWN LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL HEAT INDICES, AND FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS STILL A MEDIUM TO HIGH LIKELIHOOD (50-70%)
OF MAJOR HEATRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH POSES BIG RISKS FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. AS SUCH, MEMBERS
OF THE PUBLIC ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OUTDOORS,
TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS, STAYING HYDRATED AND WEARING LIGHT
CLOTHING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK AS SAHARAN
DUST CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. BOTH DEVELOPMENTS
WILL HELP REDUCE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
BY INTRODUCING DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR WHERE
SEA BREEZES WILL MEET.
CONDITIONS START TO CHANGE DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILTER BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN, WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EACH
DAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED, CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE COMPARED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK.
HEAT WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF
SAHARAN DUST INTO THE MIX. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 RANGE
LIKELY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SOME CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KAPF. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEK, WITH A WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EACH AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT 1-2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 93 80 93 79 / 10 10 30 10
WEST KENDALL 94 78 94 76 / 20 10 30 10
OPA-LOCKA 94 80 95 79 / 10 10 30 10
HOMESTEAD 93 80 93 79 / 10 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 81 93 80 / 10 10 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 80 92 79 / 10 10 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 96 81 96 81 / 10 10 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 93 79 93 78 / 20 10 30 10
BOCA RATON 91 80 92 79 / 10 10 30 10
NAPLES 93 79 92 79 / 20 20 20 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...HADI
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