678
FXUS62 KMFL 221926
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
326 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 224 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS, AS WELL AS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS AGAIN TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S, AND HEAT INDICES 103-107F.
- DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
AS OF 3 PM, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAMS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH VERY WEAK
STEERING FLOW LEADING TO SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION. THEREFORE, MOST
ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AND ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, INCLUDING OUTFLOW COLLISIONS FROM OTHER
STORMS. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL
LEAD TO DCAPE NEAR OR JUST SHY OF 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THUS,
GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, GENERALLY
AFTER SUNSET.
DRY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO COULD DRIFT ONSHORE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE AND TUESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION, WITH
CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. BUT, A SLIGHTLY MORE CENTRALIZED
COLLISION IS EXPECTED, WITH SOME DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN METRO
AREAS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING.
HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES 103-107+. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED
FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES. REGARDLESS, HEATRISK IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN MODERATE TO MAJOR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
RIDGING STRENGTHENS INTO THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, MODELS
SUGGEST A WAVE OF SAL MOVING INTO THE AREA, HELPING TO PROVIDE DRY
AIR AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE, WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAIN FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK THIS WEEK, THE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS WILL WORK TO LIMIT CONVECTION BY LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MAY STILL SEE SOME HIGHER POP
COVERAGE ALONG THE SW COAST, AS EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PINS
THE WEST COAST BREEZE INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION, ANY CELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS, SHOULD THEY BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INCREASED
DCAPE.
HEAT REMAINS A CONCERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DESPITE SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EACH
DAY AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD ATTEMPT
TO LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY, STAY
HYDRATED, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR
CONDITIONING. REMEMBER, NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN
A CAR FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR,
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR TAF SITES. SEA BREEZES PRODUCE WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VCSH INCLUDED. THEN, SCATTERED STORMS
ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AFTER 18Z, WHICH COULD DRIFT TOWARDS EAST
COAST METRO AREAS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THIS WEEK OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WHILE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OVER LAND AREAS.
HOWEVER, SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY DRIFT OFFSHORE IN THE EVENINGS AND
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT
1-2 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 20 60
WEST KENDALL 78 94 77 93 / 10 40 20 60
OPA-LOCKA 80 95 79 94 / 10 30 20 60
HOMESTEAD 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 10 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 93 80 92 / 10 30 30 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 93 79 92 / 10 30 20 60
PEMBROKE PINES 81 96 80 95 / 10 30 20 60
WEST PALM BEACH 79 93 78 93 / 10 40 20 60
BOCA RATON 80 92 79 91 / 10 30 20 60
NAPLES 79 93 79 92 / 20 10 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM....CW
AVIATION...CW
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